ESG Dialogue

THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT DURING THE TRANSITION TO NET-ZERO Oil production by origin Share of 2022 Resource Base* produced by 2050 Mboe/day 120 Iran I New discoveries - additional Iraq 100 8 80 New fields - additional Existing - additional I New discoveries Kazakhstan Libya Nigeria 60 60 I New fields Russia 40 40 20 20 History + existing Sky 2050 Archipelagos Turkmenistan Venezuela O 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0% Sky 2050 Archipelagos 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Not produced 70% 80% 90% 100% ■ Sky 2050 has very rapid transport electrification, but would still need continued investment in oil and gas because of cautious assumptions on the use of food based biofuels, on people reducing their energy use voluntarily and it doubts whether some major resource holders can produce their oil and gas reserves. ■ Archipelagos would need a considerable increase of investment in oil and gas. Shell plc | March 22, 2023 * Estimated resource base is Rystad's assessment of economically viable discovered volumes. Percentages capped at 100% for consistency, but where the model produces a significant propotion of yet-to-find volumes, the total produced volume in the model will exceed the resource base estimate. 9

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