Investor Presentaiton
Economic Growth Has Been Resilient To-Date
Despite a decline in residential investment and volatile contributions from change in
inventories, real GDP growth over the last few quarters has remained stable at >2%,
driven by resilient personal consumption and government spending
Nonfarm Payroll Job Additions (new jobs in millions):
Real GDP Growth
Atlanta Fed
GDPNow
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
2.7%
2.6%
2.2%
Q2 2023
2.1%
Forecast
Q3E 2023
5.1%
% of
Contribution from:
GDP
Personal Consumption Expenditures
69%
1.1%
0.8%
2.5%
0.6%
2.5%
Goods
24%
(0.2%)
(0.0%)
1.1%
0.1%
Services
45%
1.2%
0.8%
1.4%
0.4%
Gross private domestic investment
18%
(1.5%)
0.6%
(1.7%)
0.9%
1.2%
Nonresidential
15%
0.6%
0.2%
0.8%
1.0%
0.2%
Residential
3%
(1.4%)
(1.2%)
(0.2%)
(0.1%)
0.2%
Change in Private Inventories
Net Exports
0%
(0.7%)
1.6%
(2.2%)
0.0%
0.7%
(4%)
2.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.0%
0.9%
Government Spending
17%
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6% |
0.5%
Robust estimates for Q3 2023 Real GDP growth of approximately 4% to 5% include a nearly 2% contribution from net exports
and change in private inventories, categories which are unlikely to persist at the same level of contribution going forward
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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