KASIKORNBANK Analyst Meeting Presentation
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2021
%YoY
5.0
0.0
-5.0
Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions
2.4
-10.0
-6.1
2019
2020
-0.5
2021 F
% YoY
2021 F*
(Previous)
2021F*
2019
2020
Base
Case
GDP
2.4
-6.1
1.0
Range
0.0-1.2
Base Case
-0.5
Private Consumption
4.5
-1.0
0.8
0.5-1.0
-0.1
Government Consumption
1.4
0.8
3.0
2.5-3.5
2.5
Total Investment
2.2
-4.8
4.5
3.4-5.8
4.1
- Private investment
2.8
-8.4
3.5
2.5-5.0
3.0
- Public investment
0.2
5.7
8.5
7.2-9.5
7.5
Gov't Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
-2.9
-5.1
-5.3
-5.0 to -5.4
-5.3
Exports (Customs Basis)
-2.7
-6.0
11.5
8.5-12.5
12.4
Imports (Customs Basis)
-4.7
-12.4
21.5
17.0-22.5
23.0
Current Account (USD bn)
38.2
16.5
-7.0
-8.3 to -3.7
-11.0
Headline Inflation
0.7
-0.9
1.2
0.8-1.5
1.2
Policy Interest Rate**
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
Notes: MPC's policy rate is at 0.50% (as of August 4, 2021)
▲ represents a higher base case assumption, comparing with the previous forecast,
Source: * KResearch (as of August 16, 2021 vs forecast on July 14, 2021)
**KBank Capital Markets Research (as of January 19, 2021)
Key Points:
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
■KResearch maintains 2021 GDP forecast at -0.5%
despite an upside from reopening country plan
■Rising energy prices as well as potential flood could be
a drag on economic growth
■Exports and government spending will be the key drivers
for Thai economy this year
■Thai GDP may return to its pre-COVID-19 level in 2024
Risk Factors:
■Re-emergence of COVID-19 outbreak
■Thai Baht volatility
Flood
■Trade tensions and geopolitical risks
■Household and business balance sheet deterioration,
if outbreak lasts longer than expected
represents a lower base case assumption, comparing with the previous forecast
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K
KASIKORNTHAI
9M21 Financial Performance
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORN BANK
3
Consolidated
NIM
2020 Actual
9M21 Actual
Y2021 Targets
3.27%
3.21%
Loan Growth
12.13% YTD
8.87% YTD
13.32% YoY
Net Fee Income
Growth*
Cost to Income
Ratio**
-10.17%
7.55% YoY
3.1-3.3%
4-6%
Low single digit
growth rate
45.19%
41.85%
Mid-40s
Credit Cost per year
(bps)
205 bps
175 bps
NPL Ratio (Gross)***
3.93%
3.85%
ROE****
7.10%
8.39%
0.85%
0.98%
ROA
Note: *Net Fee Income
Notes
9M21 NIM declined YoY, mainly due to lower yield on
loans from interest rate cut, deterioration of asset quality
and loans in relief measures despite lower cost of funds.
9M21 YTD loans grew mainly from COVID-19 relief
measures (mainly from SMEs), corporate business,
housing loans, and retail lending using data analytics
capability.
9M21 net fee income increased YoY mainly from fund
management business and brokerage fee.
9M21 cost to income decreased YoY from an increase of
net total income while expenses increased;
cost to income will rise seasonally in 4Q21.
Focus on cost management and productivity
improvement, with new investments for future growth.
Credit Cost: Maintain conservative assumptions and
Up to 160 bps prudent financial policy amid high uncertainties related to
COVID-19. Relief measure help limit short-term impact on
asset quality; while, asset quality is closely monitored and
constantly reviewed.
4.0-4.5%
N/A
N/A
Fees and Service Income - Fees and Service Expense; ** Cost to Income Ratio = Total Other Operating Expenses to Total Operating Income - net (Total Operating income less Underwriting
Expenses); *** NPL Ratio (Gross) = NPL (gross) to total loans; NPL (gross) used in the calculation are loans to general customers and loans to financial institutions that are non-performing loans; total loans used in the
calculation are loans to general customers and loans to financial institutions **** ROE = Net profit deducted Additional Tier 1 dividend after tax/Average total equity excluded Additional Tier 1
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