Investor Presentaiton
July 2020
Prudent monetary policy implemented by independent regulator
Medium-term
consumer inflation
target range: 5%+/-1%
Y-o-y inflation as of
June 2020: 2.4%
Comments
The NBU is significantly softening its monetary policy
maintaining the cycle of key policy rate cuts on the back of
UAH appreciation and decelerated inflation
On June 11, the Board of the NBU decided to cut its key
policy rate from 8.0% to 6.0%, its neutral level, indicating the
end of the cycle of rapid monetary policy easing. Overall, the
key policy rate was reduced by 7.5 p.p. since the beginning of
2020, reaching the historic low over Ukraine's independence
Due to relatively tight monetary conditions and UAH
revaluation, the NBU brought inflation to its medium-term
target (5% +/-1%) in 2019 vs. end-2020 planned initially
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
CPI expectations for the following 12 months
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Apr-18
Source NBU
Banks
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Businesses
Aug-19
Households
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
7.0%
7.3%
28
5.9%
5.8%
32
222222
26
24
Apr-20
Jun-20
Financial analysts
1
Feb-18
Consumer price index (CPI) change and key policy rate
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Key policy rate, %
- CPI, y-o-y, %
UAH/US$ and UAH/EUR exchange rates dynamics
38
Notes
Apr-18
As of June 24, 2020
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
EUR
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
7
Apr-20
Jun-20
30.11
26.61
BA
6.0%
2.4%View entire presentation