Maybank Earnings Summary Q3 & 9M FY2020
Market Outlook
2020 industry outlook for our home markets
Key Indicators
Malaysia
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Singapore
Indonesia
GDP: -5.4% (2020F) vs 4.3% (2019)
System loan: 2.5% (2020F) vs 3.9% (2019)
OPR: 1.75% (2020F) vs 3.00% (2019)
USD/MYR average: 4.20 (2020F) vs 4.14 (2019)
Inflation: -1.0% (2020F) vs 0.7% (2019)
GDP: -5.7% (2020F) vs 0.7% (2019)
System loan: -2.0 to 1.0% (2020F) vs 4.2% (2019)
• 3M SIBOR: 0.40% (2020F) vs 1.77% (2019)
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USD/SGD average: 1.38 (2020F) vs 1.36 (2019)
Inflation: -0.3% (2020F) vs 0.6% (2019)
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GDP: -1.6% (2020F) vs 5.0% (2019)
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System loan: 0.2% (2020F) vs 6.1% (2019)
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Reference Rate: 3.75% (2020F) vs 5.00% (2019)
USD/IDR average: 14,690 (2020F) vs 14,313 (2019)
Inflation: 2.0% (2020F) vs 2.8% (2019)
Outlook
• The economy is expected to shrink, reflecting the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic
Movement Control Order (MCO) and drop in crude
oil prices.
• Stable NIMS moving forward amid expectations of no
further OPR cuts and as deposits reprice. Credit cost
to remain elevated as pre-emptive provisioning
continues.
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Recovery in 2H will be sluggish and choppy,
dampened by the slow reopening of businesses,
border controls, strict social distancing rules and
foreign worker shortages.
• Aggressive policy measures that focus largely on
ensuring cash flow for affected corporates and
households might assist in managing NPL risk better
than past cycles.
• Slower growth arising from the COVID-19 pandemic
will come from domestic demand activities,
especially private consumption, through the
realisation of government incentive programmes.
• OJK policy giving leniency for loan restructuring
might help prevent NPL spikes. However, likely to
have a negative impact on NIM.
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