Investor Presentaiton
Independent Review of
RBD Is Bangladesh Rolling Towards A Debt Stress?
Bangladesh's Development
6
Scenario Two: Simulation Using Debt-Stabilising Primary Balance Approach
FY2017
5.45
Shocks
(Compared to
Baseline
Scenario: 5.5%)
FY2020
4
2.65
2
4
Annual 2% rise in
real interest rate
2
0
1.81
-0.69
0
Debt-Stabilising
Debt-Stabilising
Primary Balance
Primary Balance
Gap (Per cent of
-2
Primary Balance
(Per cent of GDP)
Primary Balance
Gap (Per cent of
GDP)
-2
(Per cent of GDP)
GDP)
-4
-3.06
-4
-3.56
-6
-6.06
Baseline Scenario
Baseline Scenario
-6
-5.86
-8
1 Annual 2 per cent increase in real
interest rate
-8
Annual 2 per cent rise in real interest
rate
If the value of the debt-stabilising primary balance increases, the government
needs to maintain higher budget surplus (or lower budget deficit)
CPD (2017): State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2017 (First Reading)
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