3Q 2023 Investor Presentation
Default Rates Expected to Rise
Amid High Interest Rates and Tight Lending Conditions¹
Default Rates for Global Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance
Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rates by
Region2
Baseline
- Optimistic
14%
Moderately Pessimistic
Severely Pessimistic
10%
Global
⚫US
Europe
12%
8%
10%
6%
8%
5.6%
6%
4.1% global historical average¹
5.4%
4%
4.7%
4.5%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023F
Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22
Oct-22 Apr-23
Oct-23
» Global speculative-grade default rate expected to reach 4.7% by year-end, slightly above long-term average but well below prior recessionary levels
1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2022. 2023 forecast ended December 31, 2023. Moody's Investors Service; Default Trends - Global: October 2023 Default
Report, November 14, 2023.
2.
Statistics are based on issuer-weighted data.
Moody's | Decode risk. Unlock opportunity.
3Q 2023 Investor Presentation
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