Investor Day Summary
CANADIAN HOUSEHOLD DEBT
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Household debt has been increasing since the mid-1980s
。 Low interest rates, demographics (including immigration), financial innovation and shift in consumer attitude/behaviour
Debt increase has largely been driven by mortgage debt (represents ~72% of total household credit)
⚫ Household debt to disposable income is only one metric to analyze
·
。 While debt growth has not been fast by historical standards, income growth has not kept up, leading to an increasing household
debt to income ratio
o The household debt to income ratio mixes a balance sheet measure "debt" with an income statement measure
"disposable income". Borrowers are not generally expected to pay off their debts with one year's income
Other considerations regarding consumer indebtedness and consumer resilience to shocks:
o Housing affordability - Mortgage debt-service ratios are in line with historical averages at the national level
Interest and principal mortgage debt payments steady at 6-7% of disposable income since 2008
Consumers prudently taking advantage of low rates to repay more principal
○ Net worth – Net asset levels (assets less debt) are at an all-time high of more than 8 times disposable income
About half of these assets are financial (not real estate)
Asset growth has outpaced debt growth
Interest rate shocks - Despite expectations for higher rates, there are mitigating factors
О
Canadians have substantial equity in their homes
The majority of mortgage holders are locked in at fixed rates, with the 5-year term the most popular
Mortgage regulations, including the recent B-20 changes, require that borrowers must qualify for all types of mortgage
credit using a "stress test" interest rate, which for uninsured mortgages is the higher of the contract rate plus 200 basis
points or the Bank of Canada 5 Year Benchmark rate, to provide a buffer against rising interest rates impacting affordability
о Variable rate mortgage holders have the option to switch into fixed rates
Unemployment rate - A key driver of delinquencies and losses that determines borrowers' ability to pay debt
Levels are expected to remain fairly stable over the next 2-3 years
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