Market Outlook and Operational Insights
BATTERY-GRADE MANGANESE MARKET
Committed government policies
are expected to underpin a near
six-fold increase in North American
NEV penetration levels by 2030
We expect manganese-rich battery
chemistries to capture ~30% of the
market by 2030, and >50% by 2040
NEV (passenger car and commercial vehicle) penetration rates (a)(b)(c)(d)
Manganese-rich cathodes provide
substantial cost, performance and
sustainable sourcing benefits
Electric vehicle battery chemistries
Active cathode materials, % by mass
50% NEV penetration in
North America by 2030
100%
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2030
2040
2050
North America NEV Penetration Rate
ROW NEV Penetration Rate
LFP
NCM-622
LMFP
NMx
III
SOUTH32
Co
18%
Fe 60%
Mn
65%
Mn 17%
Mn
69%
Ni
54%
Fe
18%
P
33%
Ni
25%
P
10%
Li
11%
Li
7%
Li 7%
Li 6%
Battery chemistry for a standard
NCM-622 battery contains
~17% Mn by mass while contributing
<1% to cost (e)
The future adoption of manganese-rich
chemistries is increasingly supported by
cathode producers and OEM public
announcements of their next generation
battery chemistry strategies
Sources: NEV (passenger car and commercial vehicle) penetration rates (South32 analysis). Electric vehicle battery chemistries (Bloomberg NEF, Esource and other publicly available information).
Notes:
a.
NEV includes plug-in hybrids, battery EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell passenger cars.
b.
NEV penetration is calculated as NEV production divided by total automobile production.
C.
Passenger car and commercial vehicles include commercial trucks/SUVS.
d.
North America refers to US, Canada and Mexico.
e.
Based on prices as at the end of 2022.
SLIDE 41View entire presentation