Economic and Fiscal Update
On the Revenue Side, the Authorities Have Retained Conservative
Assumptions for 2015
Conservative Assumptions in 2015 Revised Budget Law
Brent Price (USD/bbl)¹ and Gabonese Assumption
2014 Revised
2015 Initial
2015 Revised
70
Budget Law
Budget Law
Budget Law
Oil Assumptions
50
Oil production (in millions of barrels)
78.8
74.8
73.1
Gabonese oil price (US$ per barrel)
100.0
80.0
40.0
30
Exchange Rate Assumptions
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Exchange rate (EUR/US$)
1.32
1.34
1.24
Exchange rate (US$/ CFA)
493
490
530
Brent price
Mar-15
Gabonese oil price assumption: US$40/barrel
May-15
Jun-15
Total Oil Revenues (CFA bn)
929.2
540.6
Other Assumptions
Current EUR/USD Exchange Rate¹ and Gabonese Assumption
Oil production (in millions of barrels)
78.8
74.8
73.1
Gabonese oil price (US$)
100.0
80.0
40.0
EUR/USD
Gabonese assumption: 1.24
Manganese production (in millions
of tonnes)
1.3
3,863.0
4,610.0
4,200.0
1.2
Manganese sales price (US$ per
tonne)
223.6
229.2
229.2
1.1
Gold production (in tonnes)
1.1
1.2
1.2
1
Gold sale price (US$ per ounce)
1,360.0
493.3
Exchange rate (CFA per US$)
Jan-15
Sensitivity of Budget Balance to Gabonese Oil Prices* assuming EUR/USD at 1.24
1,350.0
490.0
1,350.0
530.0
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
CFA bn
400
200
Primary balance
Overall balance (commitment basis)
US$48.5
US$58.2
US$65.8
0
(200)
(400)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Oil price (US/barrel)
Sources: Ministry of Economy, Promotion of Investments and Prospective, Bloomberg
1. Bloomberg market data
80
Breakeven Oil Price (US$/ barrel)
Primary balance
48.5
Overall balance (commitment basis)
58.2
Overall balance (cash basis)
65.8
85
*Gabon oil prices is the Brent price minus 3 to 5$ per barrel
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