Creating the Future of Finance - Breakthrough Innovation
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Property Market: New project launching rebound on the first 8 months; nonetheless, market remain high uncertainty
Supply Side: New Housing Completions and New Projects Launched in BMR*
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Thousand)
170
■New Housing Completions
■New Projects Launched
150
131133
130
117
14 124
111
125
114
119
102 132
108
133
110
127
81
86
115
118
112
90
66
68
101
70
58
50
30
10
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8M21
8M22
-10
2006
Demand Side: Transferred Properties in BMR*
(Thousand)
250
200
146 161 178
151 159
182 174
196
197 206 197
175
163
150
100
50
0
166
69
60.5 57
81
106 115
تتتا
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
8M21
8M22
Outstanding Mortgage Loans to Individuals and Property Developers to GDP
% of GDP
30
26.8
25
20
16.8
15
10
5050
10.4
4.4
1H22
Housing Loans
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Loans to Property Developers
■Mortgage loans to GDP are higher than pre-crisis level, due to
factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense
competition among banks, and a more accessible credit
market
■ Outstanding loans granted to property developers to GDP was
4.4% in 1H22, still lower than pre-crisis level
■Supply Side: New housing projects launched in 8M22
increased 110.3% YoY mainly due to condominium launched,
also compare to the low base in the last year
■Demand Side: In 8M22, property transactions increased by
8.5% compared to the low base last year, however, rising
inflation and economic uncertainties may lead to more
cautious buying homes later this year.
■Mortgage NPLs among Thai commercial banks was at 3.38%
in 1H22, compared to 3.52% in 2021
Sources: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), BOT, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA), and KResearch
Note: Including Condominium, Single House, and Townhouse; BMR = Bangkok and Metropolitan Area
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
155
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Household Borrowing
Household Borrowing to GDP
Old Definition
New Definition
% of NGDP
100
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
% NPL for Consumption Loans of Thai Commercial Banks
of Loans
89.7
90.1
86.8
20
79.7 79.4 78.4 79.9
80
60
71.8
59.3
60
8.8
12.0
7.5
12.7
8.8
40
24.4
28.9
10.6
22.3
7.6
8.3
12.3 12.2
23.1 23.1 22.3 22.3
9.4
13.4
9.7
9.6
15
13.3 12.8
10
25.3 25.3
24.3
5
19.6
18.9
2.62
20
7.7
11.2 15.1
24.5
29.5
33.5
33.7
33.5
34.3
38.5
38.7
37.0
0
11.9
13.2
13.9
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
2021
9M22
0
1994 1996 1997 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22
Commercial Banks
Non-Bank Fls
SFIS
Others
Saving Cooperatives
---Total
Old Definition: Data from 1991 - 1997: lending from commercial banks and SFIs to individual persons for consumption only
New Definition: Data from 2010 onwards: takes into account individual persons' outstanding loans from all types of financial
institutions, including savings Co-ops and non-banks
Cross-Country Comparison
of Household Debt (as of 2021)
Debt Service Ratio of Thai households
% of GDP
%
40
160
125.9
109.1
120
90.1 89.0
30
27.9 28.1 27.2 28.4
29.1
27.0
80
68.2 67.7 62.2
20
40
0
Australia
South Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Source: CEIC and KResearch
U.S.
China
10
0
2009
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: NSO and KResearch
■ Household debt to GDP stayed at 86.8% in 3Q22, and is
expected to remain high in 2023
Household borrowing to GDP is higher than pre-crisis
level, due to factors such as changes in consumer
behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more
accessible credit market
■Thailand's household debt to GDP is comparable to
other countries*; debt service ratio of Thai households
is still well below 40%, indicating the household debt
situation is unlikely to trigger any problems in the
foreseeable future
■NPL ratio for consumption loans of commercial banks fell
to 2.62% in 9M22 from 2.73% in 2021
Source: BOT, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), National Statistical Office (NSO), CEIC
and KResearch
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