Creating the Future of Finance - Breakthrough Innovation slide image

Creating the Future of Finance - Breakthrough Innovation

K KASIKORNTHAI ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK Property Market: New project launching rebound on the first 8 months; nonetheless, market remain high uncertainty Supply Side: New Housing Completions and New Projects Launched in BMR* 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Thousand) 170 ■New Housing Completions ■New Projects Launched 150 131133 130 117 14 124 111 125 114 119 102 132 108 133 110 127 81 86 115 118 112 90 66 68 101 70 58 50 30 10 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8M21 8M22 -10 2006 Demand Side: Transferred Properties in BMR* (Thousand) 250 200 146 161 178 151 159 182 174 196 197 206 197 175 163 150 100 50 0 166 69 60.5 57 81 106 115 تتتا 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8M21 8M22 Outstanding Mortgage Loans to Individuals and Property Developers to GDP % of GDP 30 26.8 25 20 16.8 15 10 5050 10.4 4.4 1H22 Housing Loans 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Loans to Property Developers ■Mortgage loans to GDP are higher than pre-crisis level, due to factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more accessible credit market ■ Outstanding loans granted to property developers to GDP was 4.4% in 1H22, still lower than pre-crisis level ■Supply Side: New housing projects launched in 8M22 increased 110.3% YoY mainly due to condominium launched, also compare to the low base in the last year ■Demand Side: In 8M22, property transactions increased by 8.5% compared to the low base last year, however, rising inflation and economic uncertainties may lead to more cautious buying homes later this year. ■Mortgage NPLs among Thai commercial banks was at 3.38% in 1H22, compared to 3.52% in 2021 Sources: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), BOT, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA), and KResearch Note: Including Condominium, Single House, and Townhouse; BMR = Bangkok and Metropolitan Area บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 155 K KASIKORNTHAI Household Borrowing Household Borrowing to GDP Old Definition New Definition % of NGDP 100 ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK % NPL for Consumption Loans of Thai Commercial Banks of Loans 89.7 90.1 86.8 20 79.7 79.4 78.4 79.9 80 60 71.8 59.3 60 8.8 12.0 7.5 12.7 8.8 40 24.4 28.9 10.6 22.3 7.6 8.3 12.3 12.2 23.1 23.1 22.3 22.3 9.4 13.4 9.7 9.6 15 13.3 12.8 10 25.3 25.3 24.3 5 19.6 18.9 2.62 20 7.7 11.2 15.1 24.5 29.5 33.5 33.7 33.5 34.3 38.5 38.7 37.0 0 11.9 13.2 13.9 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 9M22 0 1994 1996 1997 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 Commercial Banks Non-Bank Fls SFIS Others Saving Cooperatives ---Total Old Definition: Data from 1991 - 1997: lending from commercial banks and SFIs to individual persons for consumption only New Definition: Data from 2010 onwards: takes into account individual persons' outstanding loans from all types of financial institutions, including savings Co-ops and non-banks Cross-Country Comparison of Household Debt (as of 2021) Debt Service Ratio of Thai households % of GDP % 40 160 125.9 109.1 120 90.1 89.0 30 27.9 28.1 27.2 28.4 29.1 27.0 80 68.2 67.7 62.2 20 40 0 Australia South Korea Thailand Malaysia Singapore Source: CEIC and KResearch U.S. China 10 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: NSO and KResearch ■ Household debt to GDP stayed at 86.8% in 3Q22, and is expected to remain high in 2023 Household borrowing to GDP is higher than pre-crisis level, due to factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more accessible credit market ■Thailand's household debt to GDP is comparable to other countries*; debt service ratio of Thai households is still well below 40%, indicating the household debt situation is unlikely to trigger any problems in the foreseeable future ■NPL ratio for consumption loans of commercial banks fell to 2.62% in 9M22 from 2.73% in 2021 Source: BOT, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), National Statistical Office (NSO), CEIC and KResearch บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 156
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