Real Estate Investment Strategies
Banks are purposefully ceding market share in
targeted residential markets
Share of origination (%)
Sizable universe of potential borrowers remain
unable to access mortgage credit
Bank vs. non-bank mortgage origination share & total
origination market volume
$3,500
100%
$3,000
Banks retreat from lending due to changes in capital charges,
punitive fines and regulatory action
80%
$2,500
60%
$2,000
Non-banks gain market share; low rates, lack of balance sheet,
and investor base limits focus on non-agency lending
$1,500
40%
$1,000
200-300bn of potential borrowers remain underserved
by mortgage market
20%
$500
$0
0%
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
'11
Est Total Originations (lhs)
'12 '13 '14
Bank (rhs)
'15 '16
Non-Bank (rhs)
Changing composition of U.S. residential origination market
100%
MBS
80%
100%
Non-agency RMBS
Balance sheet
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Laal.l.
'03
'05
'06
'10
'15
60%
40%
20%
FICO Score Distribution at Origination
0%
'00
'02
'04
Score 500-579
Score 740-819
'06
'08
Score 580-659
Score 820+
'10
'12
'14
Score 660-739
'16
As of 31 December 2016. SOURCE: Freddie Mac, Inside Mortgage Finance (latest data as of 3Q '16) (top right and bottom left), PIMCO, CoreLogic (bottom right)
Refer to Appendix for additional outlook information.
PIMCO
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