Bank of Ireland 2022 Interim Results
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42
Forward looking information
- macro-economic scenarios
30 June 2022
Central scenario - 45% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
GNP growth¹
Unemployment rate²
Bank of Ireland 2022 Interim Results
Ireland
United Kingdom
2022
2023
2024-2026
2022
2023
2024-2026
5.6%
4.6%
3.6%
3.7%
1.2%
1.6%
5.6%
4.1%
3.2%
n/a
n/a
n/a
5.8%
5.2%
5.0%
4.0%
4.3%
4.3%
Residential property price growth³
5.0%
2.0%
1.3%
6.0%
(1.0%)
1.0%
Commercial property price growth³
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2.2%
Upside scenario -10% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
6.2%
5.2%
3.9%
4.3%
1.7%
1.8%
GNP growth¹
6.2%
4.6%
3.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
5.6%
4.8%
4.5%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
Residential property price growth³
7.0%
3.0%
2.0%
7.0%
2.0%
1.7%
Commercial property price growth³
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.0%
Downside scenario 1 -35% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
4.4%
3.2%
3.4%
2.5%
(0.4%)
1.4%
GNP growth¹
3.8%
2.6%
3.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
6.6%
6.6%
6.3%
4.7%
5.7%
6.0%
Residential property price growth³
3.0%
(6.0%)
(1.3%)
2.0%
(6.0%)
(2.0%)
Commercial property price growth³
(3.0%)
(2.5%)
0.3%
(3.0%)
(2.5%)
0.5%
Downside scenario 2 - 10% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
2.9%
0.7%
2.9%
1.2%
(2.7%)
1.1%
GNP growth¹
2.3%
(0.1%)
2.6%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
7.4%
8.4%
8.5%
5.3%
7.4%
8.3%
Residential property price growth³
0.0%
(10.0%)
(3.7%)
(1.0%)
(10.0%)
(3.7%)
Commercial property price growth³
(8.0%)
(6.5%)
(1.8%)
(8.0%)
(7.0%)
(1.7%)
1 Annual growth rate
2 Average yearly rate
3 Year-end figures
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