Avalara Q2 2022 Financial Analysis
10
Avalara Appears to Be Applying the Wrong Price to Its Post-Earnings Premium Analysis
Even if Avalara's stock had declined 10% after Q2 earnings, the Vista premium would still have been underwhelming, in our view
Transaction multiple and premium would be even higher if potential
effects of post-Q2 trading and estimate revision are considered
Avalara
Illustrative Transaction Premium Given Theoretical
Post-Earnings Stock Movement¹
We believe undisturbed price and consensus estimates would likely have been lower given Q2 earnings and likely downward guidance revision
illustrative implied Deal Premia
90%
Illustrative Impiled Deal Multiples
80%
Illustrative
Offer Price: $93.50
Undisturbed Price
Implied Deal
Premium
lustrative
Implied Deal
70%
Transaction EV 58.4bn
NTM Revenue
Multiple
60%
0%
$73.54
27%
0%
5957
8.8 x
50%
(10)
66.19
41
(2)
938
9.0
trative Post-
Blustrative Post-
Earnings Stock
Earnings Consensus
Movement
Revenue Revision
1201
58.83
59
(4)
919
92
40%
27%
30%
41%
26%
20%
13%
130)
$1,48
82
9000
94
10%
U.S. Publie Software All-Cach
Transactions >51bn Since
2012: 24% Median
Source Fixibe Avc
3
0%
Post-Earnings Stock
Movement
0%
-10%
Avalara's Flawed Analysis
59%
42%
82%
62%
4
-20%
-30%
2
4
■Premium Using Avalara Price at Earnings Announcement
Avalara is assuming that its stock price would have remained unchanged from July 6 to August 5; we believe Avalara's stock price would have traded in a manner consistent
with its peers (i.e., increasing by approximately 12% from July 6 to August 5, in-line with the peer median); therefore, any "post-earnings stock movement" calculations
should be applied to an implied price of $82.55 per share, not $73.54
Avalara is again using a new comparator that was not included in Goldman's fairness opinion ("All US public software all-cash transactions >$1bn since 2012")
Avalara seems to be basing its EV/NTM revenue multiple on its employee FAQ as of September 20, 2022, rather than Street estimates, unlike the measure it uses for the
peers
Given that Avalara's stock price has moved up or down by more than 20% on just 1 trading day out of over 1,000 since its IPO, 2 we view these outcomes as less likely
1 Source: Avalara Investor Presentation, filed with the SEC on September 23, 2022 and FactSet. "Median 1-Day Premium of Precedent Transactions" based on comparable transactions in the "Selected Transactions Analysis" of the Company's financial
advisor. See Avalara's Definitive Proxy Statement, filed with the SEC on September 12, 2022, at page 56.
2 Source: FactSet. Data as of August 5, 2022, the last trading day prior to the announcement of the transaction.
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