Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic Indicators
Key Highlights
GDP performed a strong performance in Q4 2021 with a %9.1 yoy
realization, and took the yearly GDP growth level to 11%, for 2021.
Growth momentum may get limited due to geopolitical and local
risks and stay below potential levels.
■ Strong exports and rising tourism income kept CA deficit to GDP level
at 1.9% by 2021 from 5.2% in 2020. Rising energy bill and effects of
the geopolitical uncertainties may pose upside risks on CAD in 2022.
Public Net Debt Stock as a percentage of GDP stood at 20.5% by the
end of 2021. Additional borrowing requirements may arise depending
on the global geopolitical risks.
CPI finalized 2021 at 36.1% and continues to rise to 69.97% in the
April of 2022, while PPI is as high as 121.8%. Now we expect CPI to
rise up to 75% levels in May, due to the sticky pricing and ongoing risk
factors. Headline will start to decline only by the very end of 2022,
with base effects to 50-53%. CBRT is quite optimistic with its revised
2022 y/e CPI forecast of 42.8%.
2022 will be a period of tighter monetary policies in most of the
Developed/Developing Economies, and now that the geopolitical risks
are high, volatility may persist.
GDP of Turkey (Current Prices, TL tn)
Alternatif
Bank
55
7,2
5,0
4,3
3,7
0,6 0,7 0,8
0,9 1,0
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6 1,8
2,0
2,3 2,6
3,1
2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Turkey Inflation (%)
110
CPI
ཁྐྲ ཎྜ 8 ➢ ྂ ཞ
130
PPI
121,82
69,97
10
-10 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Public Debt Net Stock / GDP (%)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
49,1% 41,7%
34,0%
32,5%
29,5% 28,2%
27,3%
20,8%
19,2% 20,5%
15,3%
16,2%
13,5%
10,9% 8,9%
6,7% 8,2% 8,2%
2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), OECD, Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Alternatif Bank Economist
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