Financial Sector Overview
Bank of Russia
RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Households and businesses inflation expectations remain elevated
Horizon
Inflation expectations (absolute numbers), %
Households
||
2017
III
17
17
2018
2019
IV
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May
Jun
Jul Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar Apr May
FOM
Next 12 months
11.2
10.3
9.6
8.7
8.9
8.4
8.5
7.8
8.6
9.8
9.7
9.9
10.1
9.3
9.8 10.2
10.4
FOM (observed inflation)
Prev. 12 months
14.0
12.4
11.2
10.0
9.9
9.4
9.2
8.3
9.2
10.6
10.3
10.4
10.2
10.1 10.1 10.2 10.1
10.1 9.1
10.6 10.0
FOM (Bank of Russia calculations) Next 12 months
4.0
4.0
2.8
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.2 2.2
2.2
2.6
2.8
3.5
3.8
3.8
4.4
5.4
6.2
5.9
5.7 5.5
9.4 9.3
10.5 10.4
5.4
Professional analysts
Bloomberg
2019
Interfax
2019
Reuters
2019
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.6
Financial markets
OFZ IN (option not subtracted) 2023
OFZ IN (option not subtracted) 2028
Inflation expectations (balanced index*)
Households
4.9
4.6
4.2
5.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
4.1
4.2
4.5
4.6
5.2
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.6
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.3
FOM
Next 12 months
Next month
0.0
-12.2
-1.3 -5.5
-12.3 -16.1
-5.3
-5.6 -0.5
-0.4
1.0
3.7
10.3
8.2
10.2
6.3
8.9
11.6
14.8
-16.1
-23.0
-18.0
-14.6
-16.5 -11.7
-3.4
-8.4 -4.9
-4.8
-5.5 -5.9 -3.3
14.5 11.9 9.2
1.6 -6.6
13.0
-7.9
13.3
-6.7 -8.9
FOM
Businesses
Bank of Russia monitoring
Next 3 months
7.9
8.6
7.5
7.3
6.8
6.3
7.0
PMI input prices
Next month
7.8
9.0
12.2
10.6
9.2
11.4
12.2
PMI output prices
Next month
1.0
3.4
6.8
3.0
2.8
2.8
4.0 13.6 6.4
8.8 10.1 10.3
27.4 27.2 28.4
6.6
11.0 11.2 12.5
21.6
22.8 24.2
13.0
23.4
13.7 16.1 18.1 12.7 11.0 9.9 9.5
22.6 22.0 35.0 26.8 23.6 19.8 14.2
8.2
6.6
5.8
7.6
7.6
Retail prices (Rosstat)
Next quarter
27
24
24
22
20
20
20
Tariffs (Rosstat)
Next quarter
4
3
0
0
5
5
0
5.6 20.4 14.4 10.0 8.8
19
21
1
5.6
Change:
- Inflation expectations become better (more than 1 standard deviation)
- Inflation expectations become better (less than 1 standard deviation)
- Inflation expectations unchanged (±0,2 standard deviations)
- Inflation expectations become worse (less than 1 standard deviation)
- Inflation expectations become worse (more than 1 standard deviation)
*Balanced index is the difference between the shares of those who expect prices to rise and to fall
Source: FOM, Rosstat, Bloomberg, Interfax, Thompson Reuters, Bank of RussiaView entire presentation