Investor Presentaiton
Stable growth impacted by COVID-19
Consumption is expected to decrease
Labour market is affected by COVID-19
20
13%
Unemployment rate %
11%
9%
15
7%
5%
10
3%
6.1%
1%
5
-1%
-3%
-5%
0
2009
Consumption
Consumption Forecast
2015
2017
2019
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Polish unemployment rate (5,5%) in 2019 was at its lowest since early 1990s
and among the lowest in Europe. Global COVID-19 pandemicic had impact on
labour market and the unemployment rate reached 6.1% in 2020 H1.
2011
2013
2021
Consumption will be further supported by fiscal package (personal tax
cuts, social transfers including the extended child subsidy programme) but
on the other hand, it will be challenged by tendency to save in the time of
uncertainity.
Source: GUS, NBP
Inflation rate (YoY) and the path of interest rates
Source: GUS, NBP
Key Polish interest rates
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1.27
01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/19 07/19 01/20 07/23
CPI inflation
Core inflation forecast
CPI forecast
Repo rate
Core inflation
Repo rate forecast
Inflation peaked in Q1/20. Some cost adjustments were recently passed onto
consumers increasing core inflation. However, it is unlikely to last and 2021
inflation will be much lower than today.
WIBOR 3M
10Y Yeld
NBP base rate
The lowest in history intrest rates should stimulate consumpion but put
pressure on net intrest margin. Conventional monetary policy tools are
ending and may not work in the future.
m
0.01
Source: GUS
Source: Bloomberg
mGroup
Covered
bonds
Cover
Pool
Polish
Economy
Real Estate
Market
Legislation
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