The Power of Agility - Methanex Capacity and Financials
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Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow capabilities assumptions
1 Reflects Methanex interest (63.1% Atlas, 50% Egypt).
2 Reflects estimated annual production of ~7.0M tonnes.
3 Reflects current estimated annual production of ~7.0M tonnes plus Geismar 3 (1.8M tonnes).
4 Adjusted EBITDA reflects Methanex's proportionate ownership interest. Approximately 65% of our current North American natural gas requirements are under fixed price
contracts or hedges. The unhedged portion of our North American natural gas requirements are purchased under contracts at spot prices. Estimates assume a natural gas price
of approximately $3.00/mmbtu.
5 Based on rule of thumb using current production capability of ~7.0M tonnes, we estimate free cash flow breakeven price of $250-260/tonne and free cash flow sensitivity to
change in methanol price of $25/tonne = ~$100M annual free cash flow. Free cash flow capability is after lease payments, cash interest (based on current debt levels), debt
service, maintenance capital, estimated cash taxes and other cash payments. Various factors including rising/declining methanol prices, planned and unplanned production
outages, production mix, changes in tax rates, and other items can impact actual free cash flow. Incremental free cash flow from G3 is presented net of estimated maintenance
capital and tax costs. Tax costs were estimated using current enacted tax rates applied over the life of the asset. Timing of actual taxes payable may vary
6 Free cash flow yield based on 76.1 M shares outstanding as of 09/30/2021 and a share price of US$50/share.
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