mtpa
750
Analysts' LNG Supply and Demand Curve¹
700
650
Implied 4.5% CAGR in Analysts' Demand Growth from 2021 to 2030
143 mtpa
Implied 3.0% CAGR in Analysts' Supply Growth from 2021 to 2030
600
550
500
450
400
350
Historical Demand CAGR of 6.5% applied through 2030
300
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Analysts' Ops & In Cons Supply (3.0% CAGR)
Buyer Exposure #1 - FIDs for Demand Growth? > 4.1%
Analysts' LNG Demand (4.5% CAGR 2021 - 2030)
73 mtpa
504 mtpa
wwwww Buyer Exposure #2 - FIDs for Analysts' LNG Demand
Historical LNG Demand (6.5% CAGR from 2019)
•
LNG market supply is short in 2021 (red circle), resulting in higher LNG market prices in 2021
LNG demand through 2030 is forecasted to exceed 'operating' and 'in construction' LNG supply by at least 73 mtpa
If historical CAGR of 6.5% is realized in demand growth to 2030, then a further shortfall in LNG supply of 143 mtpa is implied
1 Analysts: Data from FGE, IHS Markit, Poten, and Wood Mackenzie updated to Q4 2021 | 2 Adjusted Operating & In Construction capacity for Force Majeure, Cancellation and other sponsor issued statements
RIO
GRANDE
LNG
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