Financial Sector Overview
Bank of Russia RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
18
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (1)
Medium-term outlook for the Russian economy
Key parameters of the Bank of Russia's forecast scenarios
(growth as % of previous year, if not indicated otherwise)
Urals price, average for the year, US dollars per barrel
Inflation, as % in December year-on-year
2018
BASELINE
HIGH OIL PRICES
(actual)
2019
2020
2021
2019
2020
2021
69.8
65
60
55
70
75
75
4.3
4.2-4.7
4.0
4.0
4.2-4.7
4.0
4.0
Gross domestic product
Inflation, average for the year, as % year-on-year
Final consumption expenditure
2.9
4.7-4.9
4.0
4.0
4.7-4.9
4.0
4.0
2.3
1.0-1.5
1.8-2.3
2.0-3.0
1.0-1.5
2.0-2.5
2.0-3.0
1.8
1.0-1.5
1.8-2.3
2.0-2.5
1.0-1.5
2.0-2.5
2.0-2.5
- households
Gross capital formation
2.3
1.0-1.5
1.8-2.3
2.5-3.0
1.0-1.5
2.3-2.8
2.5-3.0
0.8
0.5-1.5
3.5-4.5
3.5-4.5
0.5-1.5
3.5-4.5
3.5-4.5
- gross fixed capital formation
2.9
1.0-2.0
3.5-4.5
3.5-4.5
1,0-2,0 3.5-4.5
3.5-4.5
Exports
5.5
0.8-1.3
2.7-3.2
2.7-3.2
0.8-1.3
2.7-3.2 2.7-3.2
Imports
2.7
1.0-1.5 3.8-4.2
4.5-5.0
1.0-1.5
4.0-4.5 4.5-5.0
Money supply in national definition
11.0
8-12
7-12
7-12
9-13
8-13
8-13
Claims on organisations and households in rubles and
foreign currency¹
11.5
8-12
7-12
7-12
9-13
7-12
7-12
-
claims on non-financial and financial organisations in
8.4
7-10
6-10
6-10
8-11
6-10
6-10
rubles and foreign currency, growth as % over year
-
claims on households in rubles and foreign currency,
growth as % over year
22.0
15-20
11-16
10-15
16-21
12-17
10-15
1Banking sector claims on organisations and households means all of the banking sector's claims on non-financial and financial institutions and households in the
currency of the Russian Federation, a foreign currency and precious metals, including loans issued (including overdue loans), overdue interest on loans, credit
institutions' investment in debt and equity securities and promissory notes, as well as other forms of equity interest in non-financial and financial institutions, and other
accounts receivable from settlement operations involving non-financial and financial institutions and households.
Source: Bank of RussiaView entire presentation