Investor Presentaiton
M bpd
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Dec-10
Mar-11
UAE Oil production
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
⚫ 2014 growth estimated at 4.5%, from 4.6% in 2013. Oil
production has been broadly stable in Q1 2014 at 2.7mn bpd.
Hydrocarbons is not expected to contribute significantly to
overall growth in 2014.
Non-oil sector expected to be main driver of UAE growth
in 2014. PMI data reached a record high in March, on the
back of strong new order growth, reflecting improved
domestic and external demand.
• Inflation expected to accelerate to an average 3.0% in 2014
from an average of 1.1% in 2013, on higher housing costs
and rising input prices.
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
China
Country
UAE
Eurozone
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Singapore
US
Saudi
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
3.2% -4.8% 1.7% 3.9% 4.4% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.0% 7.3%
0.4% -4.4% 2.0% 1.6% -0.7% -0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
2.1% -2.5% 6.8% 4.8%
1.5% 2.9% 3.5% 3.8%
8.2% 6.6% 9.4% 7.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.8% 5.5%
-1.0% -5.5% 4.7% -0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 1.5%
1.8% -0.9% 14.9% 5.3% 1.9% 4.0% 3.8% 4.0%
-0.8% -5.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0%
-0.3% -2.8% 2.5% 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.5%
8.4% 1.8% 7.4% 8.6% 5.8% 3.8% 4.2% 4.3%
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UK
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Jun-13
Sep-13
140
59
58
120
57
Dec-13
Mar-14
USD per barrel
• N± 2 %
100
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
gལུཿགླུགྒཐ88
Jan-10
Mar-10
Source: Markit/HSBC
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
UAE PMI - Non Oil Private Sector Activity
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
4
Emirates NBDView entire presentation