2021 Investor Presentation slide image

2021 Investor Presentation

Possible future market outcomes Existing generation plant retirement (~3GW) will drive significant new investment Coupled with significant demand growth (decarbonisation), could see 8-10GW+ built by 2050 Renewable costs will continue to decline Renewable generation reaches 95%+ Consumer will play a bigger role in markets Flexibility will be critical to solving NZ's dry year risk Demand response solutions with some gas capacity can achieve a balanced outcome Long-term system prices approach pre 2018 gas stress levels, higher price volatility from greater prevalence of wind and solar Meridian. New generation capacity to 2050 4,000 Installed generation [MW] 3,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 Evo Revo Evo Revo Evo Revo Evo Revo Evo Geothermal Solar (Grid) Wind Hydro Revo Evo FY2041-50 FY2031-40 FY2021-30 Revo Evo Revo Evo Revo Thermal Solar (Roof) Retired Retired Thermal Renewables Meridian modelling using two scenarios (both assume 2024 NZAS exit): 1. Evolution - modest decarbonisation and ETS pricing, steady demand-side technology growth, thermal peaking 2. Revolution - high decarbonisation and ETS pricing, strong demand-side technology growth, thermal retirement, dispatchable demand Source: Meridian NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 6
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