2021 Investor Presentation
Possible future market outcomes
Existing generation plant retirement (~3GW) will
drive significant new investment
Coupled with significant demand growth
(decarbonisation), could see 8-10GW+ built by
2050
Renewable costs will continue to decline
Renewable generation reaches 95%+
Consumer will play a bigger role in markets
Flexibility will be critical to solving NZ's dry year
risk
Demand response solutions with some gas
capacity can achieve a balanced outcome
Long-term system prices approach pre 2018 gas
stress levels, higher price volatility from greater
prevalence of wind and solar
Meridian.
New generation capacity to 2050
4,000
Installed generation [MW]
3,000
2,000
1,000
-1,000
-2,000
Evo
Revo
Evo
Revo
Evo
Revo
Evo
Revo
Evo
Geothermal Solar (Grid)
Wind
Hydro
Revo
Evo
FY2041-50
FY2031-40
FY2021-30
Revo
Evo
Revo
Evo
Revo
Thermal
Solar (Roof)
Retired Retired
Thermal Renewables
Meridian modelling using two scenarios (both assume 2024 NZAS
exit):
1. Evolution - modest decarbonisation and ETS pricing, steady
demand-side technology growth, thermal peaking
2. Revolution - high decarbonisation and ETS pricing, strong
demand-side technology growth, thermal retirement,
dispatchable demand
Source: Meridian
NOVEMBER 2021
2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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