Ashmore Emerging Markets Strategy Phase 3
Assessing the Emerging Markets cycle
•
Ashmore
Effective policy responses to pandemic
- EM required less fiscal stimulus and consolidating deficits
faster than DM
-
Positive outlook as 2021 headwinds fade
Macro topic
US rates
EM rates
EM long-term convergence trend intact
Fed tightening a catalyst for performance
Higher EM yields/spreads in 2021 reflect 'fear', provide
significant buffer for outperformance
China
EM central banks tightened aggressively, ahead of
inflation and the Fed
2021
Uncertainty, misguided fear
priced into EM
Central banks ahead of
inflation, attractive real rates
Slower growth due to
regulatory impact in energy,
real estate and tech
2022 outlook
Expected rate increases will
still leave negative real rates
Continued focus on inflation,
currencies will benefit from
real rate differentials
Policy easing has started,
will support stronger growth
US real rates will remain negative, currently ~500 bps
lower than EM real rates
Higher rates and attractive real yields in Emerging Markets (%)
8.0
6.0
•
China will grow faster
4.0
China's growth headwinds to reverse in 2022
2.0
- Consistent long-term economic objectives, focus in short
term on growth and stability
0.0
Policy tightening in 2021 is giving way to easing
-2.0
سر
-6.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-4.0
•
Valuations do not reflect supportive macro outlook
-
External debt spreads c.400bps
-
Local currency bond yield >6%, positive real yields
Equities at 15-year relative low to DM
EM vs US spread
ex-post real GBI-EM yield
ex-post US real yield
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