Ashmore Emerging Markets Strategy Phase 3 slide image

Ashmore Emerging Markets Strategy Phase 3

Assessing the Emerging Markets cycle • Ashmore Effective policy responses to pandemic - EM required less fiscal stimulus and consolidating deficits faster than DM - Positive outlook as 2021 headwinds fade Macro topic US rates EM rates EM long-term convergence trend intact Fed tightening a catalyst for performance Higher EM yields/spreads in 2021 reflect 'fear', provide significant buffer for outperformance China EM central banks tightened aggressively, ahead of inflation and the Fed 2021 Uncertainty, misguided fear priced into EM Central banks ahead of inflation, attractive real rates Slower growth due to regulatory impact in energy, real estate and tech 2022 outlook Expected rate increases will still leave negative real rates Continued focus on inflation, currencies will benefit from real rate differentials Policy easing has started, will support stronger growth US real rates will remain negative, currently ~500 bps lower than EM real rates Higher rates and attractive real yields in Emerging Markets (%) 8.0 6.0 • China will grow faster 4.0 China's growth headwinds to reverse in 2022 2.0 - Consistent long-term economic objectives, focus in short term on growth and stability 0.0 Policy tightening in 2021 is giving way to easing -2.0 سر -6.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -4.0 • Valuations do not reflect supportive macro outlook - External debt spreads c.400bps - Local currency bond yield >6%, positive real yields Equities at 15-year relative low to DM EM vs US spread ex-post real GBI-EM yield ex-post US real yield 24 14
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