Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
K
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
KASIKORNTHAI
Challenges: Exports
Export is expected to mediocre in 2021 amid global trade uncertainties and transitions to structural changes
Short-term Challenges
Key Structural Problems
Key Affected Products
Short-term Measures from Authorities
and Related Parties
Long-term Measures from Authorities
and Related Parties
■Faltering global demand
■THB volatility
Exports
■■US trade policy, e.g. measures to reduce trade deficit from 16 major countries
■Trade uncertainties
■High dependence on China's market
■Changing demand in electronic products and loss of competitiveness in some areas
(e.g. HDD)
High crop surplus among competitors
■Electronics and Electrical Appliances (Structural Challenge)
■Fishery and Agriculture Products (US SIMP)
■Steel and Aluminum, Washing machine (US tariffs)
■Plastic, ICs, Machinery and Electrical Equipment (US-China's trade dispute)
■ Extending products to catch up with changing consumer trends
■ Enhancing practices to comply with international standards
■Setting up export promotion board
■ Providing supports to help individuals gain skills and qualifications relevant to the needs
of the labour market
■Negotiating FTA and regional trade agreements
■Relocating factories to GSP eligible countries
■Promoting BOI's privileges which grant merit based on competitiveness enhancements
■ Enhancing productivity
Note: HDD Hard Disk Drive; IUU fishing = Illegal Unreported and Unregulated fishing; FTA = Free Trade Area; GSP = Generalized System of Preferences; BOI = the Board of Investment of Thailand
Source: KResearch (as of April 2019)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
151
K
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
KASIKORNTHAI
Tourism industry in Thailand expected to take over 3 years to recover to near pre-COVID-19 level
%Tourism Revenue to GDP
(%)
20%
18.2%
17.9%
11.6%
11.4%
10%
5.2%
6.5%
3.0%
1.6% -2.3%
1.5% -2.0%
6.6%
0%
2.2%
2018
2019
2020
%Foreign tourism revenue to GDP
%Total toursim revenue to GDP
0.1% -0.3%
2021
%Domestic tourism revenue to GDP
No. of Foreign Tourists and Domestic Trips
•
•
The Thai government's 120-day target of reopening the country to international
tourists (around the start of 4Q21) will help revive business activity in the
tourism sector. Nevertheless, success rests on nationwide vaccination efforts
and containment of COVID-19 outbreaks, both domestic and overseas.
However, tourism continues to be rife with uncertainty. KResearch has thus
revised downward the upper end of its projection on the number of tourist
arrivals in 2021 to 650,000 and the lower end of our projection is at 250,000
tourists.
Domestic travel has been impacted by the latest wave of the COVID-19
pandemic and it may take a while for the situation to be controlled. KResearch
has thus revised downward the number of domestic travelers during 2021 from
previous estimates. Domestic travel is now anticipated at 60-70 million trips,
compared to the 85-109 million trips projected in April 2021.
Tourism Revenue
(Bt bn)
(Million Persons)
166.0
172.7
(Million Trips)
180
4,000
2,947
2,994
50
130
39.9
86.3
3,000
38.2
60-70
80
1,876
1,912
2,000
25
30
1,071
1,082
269-363
6.7
0.25 -0.65
1,000
813
339 474
0
-20
250-318
19-45
2018
2019
2020
2021
0
No. of Foreign tourists (persons)
Note: As of May 2021, KReseach estimates tourism data for 2020 to 2021
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
No. of Domestic trips
2018
2019
■Foreign Tourism Revenue
■Total Revenue
2020
2021
Domestic Tourism Revenue
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