Portrait of an Ascending Sovereign Credit
The Covid-19 pandemic has negative effect on economic growth in 2020 but it is expected to rebound in
2021
Private consumption has the largest negative impact in the first half of 2020. In accordance with credit rating agencies GDP
will grow already in 2021.
Real GDP Growth (seasonally adjusted data, %)
GDP Growth Composition (%)
1.4 1.8
1.0 0.7
4.1 4.4
3.7 3.7
3.2
3.6 4.03.3
4.8 5.23.6
3.9
1.6
2.4 2.1
3.0
2.4.5
4
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.3
2.3
1.4
0.6
0.9
1.8
03
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.4
1.4
1.8
1.6
04
-0.7
-1.5
-1.5
-1.8
-1.0
-8.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014
2015
2016
Q-o-q
2017
Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (12.10.2020.)
6.5%
4.3%
2.3%
1.1%
2018
Y-o-y
Real GDP Growth
(%)
4.0%
4.0%
3.3%
2.4%
2.1%
2019
2020
5.1%
3.1%
-7.5
2014
2015
■Private consumption
2016
Public consumption
2017
2018
Gross capital formation
2019
2020 Q1-Q2
■Net exports
Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (12.10.2020.)
GDP Growth
(2019, %)
2.1%
EU-27: 1.5 %
-7.0%
Estonia Czech Republic
AA-/A1/AA AA-/Aa3/AA-
Latvia
A+/A3/A-
France
Austria
Belgium
Finland
AA/Aa2/AA AA+/Aa1/AA+ AA/Aa3/AA- AA+/Aa1/AA+
2017
2018
2019
2020F 2021F 2022F
Source: Eurostat (7.10.2020.)
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
2016
Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (30.09.2020), MoF forecasts
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