OCI Global Energy Transition Leadership
0
10
20
30
40
40
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Henry Hub
-TTF
50
70
80
60
60
TTF futures are
$17/MMBtu for Q4'2023-
2024 with upside risk next winter
Jan-18
May-18
Elevated Costs for Marginal Producers Supportive of Nitrogen Prices
Global Feedstock Prices 2017-2023F, $/MMBtu
Cash Costs per ton of Ammonia 2017-2023F, $/t
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Ukraine
Chinese anthracite coal price
-Asia LNG
Global differentials between US, North
Africa and EU marginal costs remain wide
3,000
May-23
Sep-23
0
Jan-16
500
Apr-16
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
2,500
Apr-18
Jul-18
Arbitrage between international ammonia pricing &
domestic EU costs remains volatile and further
rationalisation of capacity is expected: Three
permanent closures in Europe in 2022/2023, with the
possibility of further curtailments in EU & other regions.
Source: Bloomberg, CCTD, CRU, OCI, Gas futures as of 23 October 2023
(1) Cash costs includes feedstock costs, and variable costs such as labour, SG&A, power. It does not include debt servicing or maintenance capex (2) Average North American production assumed to be 37.2 MMBtu per ton of ammonia for feedstock; Average
European production assumed at 35 MMBtu per ton of ammonia for feedstock; Average Ukrainian production assumed at 38 MMBtu per ton of ammonia for feedstock; Chinese production assumed to be 1.12 tons of coal for feedstock.
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
United States
-Europe
-Ukraine
Chinese marginal costs
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
222
22
Global
OCIGIView entire presentation