Investor Presentaiton
February 2022
Prudent monetary policy implemented by independent regulator
Medium-term
consumer inflation
target range: 5%+/-1%
Y-o-y inflation as of
December 2021:
10.0%
Comments
In March 2021, the NBU started the cycle of rate hikes to
curb inflation, raising the key policy rates 6 times during Mar
2021 - Jan 2022 by 4.0 p.p. The CB also rolled back its
emergency measures to support banking liquidity in Oct 2021
At the latest MPC meeting, the NBU increased the interest
rate by 1.0 p.p. to 10.0%. The CB assesses that the inflation
peak was realized in September with inflation at 11.0%
In December, inflation decelerated to 10.0%. The increase
in prices was mainly driven by processed food, non-food
products and services due to rising energy prices
The NBU has worsened its 2022 inflation forecast, from
5.0% to 7.7%, due to high global energy prices, robust
consumer demand, price pressures from trading partners
CPI expectations for the following 12 months
Consumer price index (CPI) change and key policy rate
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
CPI, y-o-y, %
Source National Bank of Ukraine
May-20
Jul-20
10.0%
10.0%
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Key policy
rate, %
NBU's medium-term
inflation target range
UAH/US$ and UAH/EUR exchange rates dynamics
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-19
Jul-19
Mar-19
May-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Banks
Businesses
Source National Bank of Ukraine
Households
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
38.0
36.0
34.0
10.6%
32.0
30.0
8.7%
28.0
8.0%
26.0
6.3%
24.0
22.0
Financial analysts
1
20.0
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Jul-20
May-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Notes
As of Jan 28, 2022
EUR
US$
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
12
BA
32.31
29.01View entire presentation