Investor Presentaiton
Indonesia's Economic Growth Projected to Remains Solid and Resilient
Supported by Domestic Demand
Strong GDP Growth¹
8.0
IQoQ
-YoY
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
2016
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2015
2017
2018
4.94
1.60
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
10,00
Amidst increasing global uncertainty, Indonesia's economic performance remains solid
and resilient to global spillover. Entering the second half of 2023, Indonesia's economy
grew by 4.94 % (yoy) in the third quarter of 2023, after recorded a 5.17% (yoy) growth in
the second quarter of 2023. The economic performance was supported by solid domestic
demand. Household consumption growth recorded 5.06% (yoy) in line with increasing
mobility, stable purchasing power, and a well maintained of consumer confidence.
Meanwhile government consumption contracted by 3.76% (yoy) due to shifting personnel
expenditures in Q2-2023. Overall investment recorded a higher growth at 5.77% (yoy),
supported by improved construction investment in line with the continued infrastructure
development in various regions, including the infrastructure development of Ibu Kota
Nusantara (IKN). Nevertheless, exports contracted by 4.26% (yoy), given weaker global
economy. Economic growth also supported by sound performance across all economic
sectors, particularly the manufacturing industry, wholesale and retail trade as well as
construction. Spatially, the highest economic growth was recorded in the regions of
Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua (Sulampua), Java, Kalimantan, Sumatera, and Bali-Nusa Tenggara
(Balinusra). Robust economic growth is expected to persist in the fourth quarter of 2023, as
reflected in a number of early indicators, such as consumer confidence, income
expectations and the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Overall, economic
growth in 2023 is projected in the 4.5-5.3% range before accelerating in 2024 as a corollary
of solid consumer confidence, the upcoming general election and ongoing development of
national strategic projects (PSN). Bank Indonesia will continue strengthening fiscal-
monetary stimulus synergy with macroprudential stimuli to drive economic growth,
particularly from the demand side.
2023-2024 Growth Projection *)
6,29
5,88
4,95
5,00
3,25
1,51
0,00
0,66
2012
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022
2023 2024
Institutions
GDP growth
2023
GDP growth
2024
-5,00
2023 Budget
5.3
5.2
Bank Indonesia
4.5-5.3
4.7-5.5
-10,00
Consensus Forecast (December 2023)
5.0
4.9
-15,00
India
Indonesia -Italy
Philippines
Portugal
Uruguay
World Bank (IEP, December 2023)
5.0
4.9
IMF (WEO, October 2023)
5.0
5.0
ADB (Asian Development Outlook, September 2023)
5.0
5.0
2.
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), ** Including non-profit household consumption
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2023; * indicates estimated figure
*) Consensus Forecast number will be given later
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