Scotiabank Economic and Financial Market Update
Canadian Housing Market
Engineered moderation of price and volume
Significant Moderation in Price Growth*
25
20
15
250
Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price
Index Y/Y Percentage Change
10
10
5
0
-5
-10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted
Canada's Five Largest Metropolitan Areas*
10
MLS Home Price Index Benchmark
8
Price Y/Y Percentage Change
6
6.37
4
3.18
2
0
-2
-4
Average
-1.52
-6
-8.52
-8
-10
GTA
GVA
Volume of Home Sales Near 10-Year Average*
50
50
45
Units, 000s
Monthly home sales
40
40
35
30
25
20
20
10-year monthly moving avg.
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Seasonally adjusted
Decline in Share of High Risk Mortgages
25
% Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income
ratio greater than 450%
20
15
-4.01
10
-4.60
Montreal Calgary Edmonton
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted
5
0
Mortgage
insurance
rules
tightened
Guideline
B-20
revised
Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
High-ratio mortgages
Source: Bank of Canada
Jun-18 Dec-18
Total mortgages
Dec-16 Jun-17
Low-ratio mortgages
Dec-17
Scotiabank®
40
40
1 Sources for charts and table: Bank of Canada Financial System Review 2019 (Data as of December 31, 2018); CREA; MLS Home Price Index growth rates reported as non seasonally-adjusted y/y (Data as of April 2019)View entire presentation