Modeling with New Disclosures Linking Price & Drivers to Financial Results
Potash
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1.60
1.50
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
Product mix:
Standard product is the primary product sold under China and Indian contracts.
Granular product is the primary product sold into North America and Brazil.
Granular product is generally priced at a premium to standard, covering the slightly higher costs associated with the
granulation process.
In the short term, 80% of cash production costs are fixed.
On average, Canadian Resource Taxes can be estimated by applying the rate of 20 to 24 percent of GM excluding CRT.
Tonnes sold through Canpotexare priced net, with Canpotex responsible for transportation costs. Ergo, Canpotex revenues
reflect net pricing.
Tonnes sold in North America are priced delivered and both revenues and COGS include transport costs.
Market vs. Realized MOP Prices
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Jan 17
Jul 17
Jan 18
Jul 18
Brazil CNF Index
Jan 19
Jul 19
Realized Price Index
Jan 20
Jul 20
Based on 2019 and 2020 monthly averages:
Logistics costs / tonne = $78 N.A.; $83 Export
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Days lag pricing to revenue recognition:
Average = 50
Range 25 to 75
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Lag varies with seasonality and sentiment. The pace of
buying and delivery increases when prices are rising. Fixed
price contracts for China and India dampen correlations.
Export logistics costs are not included in Mosaic's COGS or
revenues.
Mosaic
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