Engine No. 1 Activist Presentation Deck
ExxonMobil's Position on Electric Vehicles
Industry shifts regarding EV - including GM's recent EV announcement - present additional
long-term risk to ExxonMobil
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ExxonMobil predicts that EV/hybrids will reach 30% of 2040 new passenger car sales,
versus BNEF (57% electric/hybrid) and the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (75%
electric). ExxonMobil also estimates a much larger 2040 global car parc of ~1.9 billion, so
while the share of internal combustion engines (ICE) falls, forecasted oil decline is limited
Average battery prices
have fallen at an 18%
learning rate since 2010. At
this rate, an EV would cost
the same as an ICE car by
2024, which could lead to
peak demand in ICE cars
ExxonMobil's EV estimates
have trailed IEA, OPEC,
BP and BNEF estimates,
and have been consistently
revised upwards
Million EVS
600
500
400
300
200
100
ExxonMobil Electric Vehicle Estimates vs. Other Observers
0
2020
2025
2030
2035
Source: ExxonMobil's 2019 Outlook for Energy, Company's last published EV estimates. IEA 2040 number from IEA's WEO 2019. WEO 2020's SDS scenario
projects 40% of all cars sold to be electric by 2030, higher than what ExxonMobil projects by 2040. WEO 2020 does not have a stated 2040 EV projection.
Bloomberg NEF | Chart Source: Bloomberg NEF report Pathways Emerging: How the World May Decarbonize (Mar 2019)
2040
BNEF, 2018
BNEF, 2017
BNEF, 2016
-BP, 2018
BP, 2017
BP, 2016
OPEC, 2018
OPEC, 2017
OPEC, 2016
-Exxon, 2018
Exxon, 2017
Exxon, 2016
-IEA, 2018
IEA, 2017
IEA, 2016
-EIA, 2018 (U.S.)
REENERGIZE
EXXON//
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