Investor Presentaiton
Latest public finances update -including some of the shocks- showed little changes on fiscal accounts
MoF: Macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal variables
Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing
Requirements (HBPSBR)
% of GDP
2022
2023
60
Actual
■GEPC (Sep'21)
■Pre-GEPC (Apr'22)
GDP
(% y/y)
Inflation
(% y/y)
Exchange rate
(USD/MXN)
3.4
(Consensus: 1.8)
5.5
(Consensus: 7.5)
20.70
(Consensus: 20.79)
3.5
(Consensus: 1.9)
3.3
(Consensus: 4.5)
51.7
50
49.6 49.6 49.6 49.6 49.6 49.6 49.6
48.7
50
45.7 44.9 44.5
40
التتتت
T
20.90
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
(Consensus: 21.33)
Oil price
(US$/bbl)
92.9
(YTD: 90.9)
Rating agencies
61.1
Fitch Ratings S&P Global
MOODY'S
Oil production
1,820
A-
A-
A3
1,851
(kbpd)
(To May: 1,627)
BBB+
BBB+
Baa1
PSBR
(% of GDP)
-3.7
(Consensus: -3.9)
-3.3
(Consensus: -3.8)
Sovereign
BBB
BBB
Baa2
Sovereign
PEMEX
BBB-
Sovereign BBB-
Baa3
HBPSBR
BB+
BB+
Bal
Investment
grade
threshold
49.6
49.6
(% of GDP)
BB
BB
Ba2
BB-
PEMEX
BB-
Ba3
Notes: PSBR stands for Public Sector Borrowing Requirements. Consensus comes from Banxico's survey
Source: SHCP, Bloomberg, Banxico, National Hydrocarbon Comission, Rating agencies
B+
B+
B1
PEMEX
Div
DB
Rev
Dep
80
NIM
TI
LD
Loan
BAP
Guid
ESG
Eco
68
NI
ROE
ICAP
Mkt
App
Hist
C/I
GRUPO FINANCIERO
BANORTEView entire presentation