September 2022 - Strategy and Outlook
Oil market tightened by low investment and crises
Upstream oil investment
B$
Europe and North America refining capacity
Additions & closures* - Mb/d
Te
TotalEnergies
0.5
400
200
Investment
needed
0
blbil "77
Investment
forecast
-0.5
-1
Additions
Closures
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022e
2023e
→ Pandemic exacerbated low industry investment
→ Limited spare global capacity
→ ~100 B$/y additional investment needed to balance markets,
rebuild spare capacity and offset natural decline (~4%/y)
.
OPEC+ and shale oil industry discipline maintained
Developing new conventional oil supply takes years
Supportive macro
Source: Rystad
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022e
2023e
→ Pandemic accelerated closures, mainly West of Suez
→
Distillate short in Atlantic Basin yielding record margins in 2022...
→
...amplified by ban on Russian petroleum products from 2023
→ Anticipated capacity additions post-2022 mainly East of Suez
*Including conversions to biorefineries
Source: Company data
September 2022 - Strategy and Outlook 7View entire presentation