OCI Ramp-Up of Methanol Capacity
Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance Expected to Support Fertilizer Prices
Ammonia Market Tightening Expected after Difficult 2019
million mtpa
4
3
1
20+
-1
-2
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Capacity Additions
Demand Growth
Historical Fertilizer Price¹)
Ammonia NW Europe CFR ($/Mt)
Midcycle urea
Midcycle ammonia
CAN CIF Germany (€/Mt)
Urea Granular Egypt FOB ($/Mt)
Midcycle CAN
700
500
OCI
300
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Company information and estimates, CRU, Fertecon, Integer, company reports, International Fertilizer Association ("IFA")
1 Midcycle average prices are defined as average prices for last ten years
Ammonia markets have
been oversupplied since
early 2019 but no further
major new merchant
supply expected until
2023, and demand
expected to strengthen
Urea and CAN prices on
positive trajectory,
ammonia at inflection
trough, but nitrogen
prices are still 25-35%
below 10-year mid-cycle
average
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