Investor Presentaiton
Allowance for Credit Losses
ACL Movement:
Moody's August 2023 baseline scenario continues to
show a resilient economy that avoids a recession
Economic scenario change is driven by variables that
impact the P.R. consumer loan portfolios
Higher qualitative reserves mainly due to increasing
trend in NCOs for unsecured personal loans
New U.S. CRE model is based on more granular
regional performance
Portfolio changes are mainly driven by changes in
the credit quality of consumer loans and higher loan
volumes
$700
Economic Scenarios:
Baseline scenario is assigned the highest probability,
followed by the S3 (pessimistic) scenario
Increase in 2023 forecasted GDP growth for P.R. due
to revision of the P.R. Government Economic
Activity Index
Unemployment rate for P.R. near historical lows
2023 U.S. forecast for GDP growth is being aided by
rising consumer and government spending while the
unemployment rate remains consistent with the
previous quarter
The reduction in 2024 U.S. GDP growth reflects the
continued impact of the Fed's monetary policy
Differences due to rounding
-
Q3 2023 Movement
ACL Movement
($ in millions)
$8
$4
$(33)
$(15)
$47
$711
Q2 2023 ACL
NCOs
Economic Scenarios Qualitative Reserves
New US CRE Model
Portfolio Changes
Q3 2023 ACL
Economic Activity
Unemployment Rates
U.S.
U.S.
Projections at:
2Q23
Scenario Description
Baseline
2023
2024
Projections at:
2023
2024
1.6%
1.7%
2Q23 Baseline
3.6%
4.0%
S1 Stronger Growth
2.1%
3.2%
S1
3.3%
3.1%
S3 Recession
0.8%
-1.4%
S3
4.7%
7.6%
3Q23
Baseline
2.0%
1.3%
3Q23 Baseline
3.6%
4.0%
S1 Stronger Growth
2.2%
3.2%
S1
3.5%
3.1%
S3 Recession
1.8%
-1.7%
S3
4.0%
7.3%
P.R.
P.R.
2Q23
Baseline
1.5%
1.0%
2Q23 Baseline
6.3%
7.6%
S1 Stronger Growth
1.8%
1.9%
S1
6.1%
7.0%
S3 Recession
0.9% -1.0%
S3
6.9%
9.8%
3Q23
Baseline
1.7%
0.9%
3Q23 Baseline
6.1%
6.8%
S1 Stronger Growth
1.9%
2.2%
S1
6.0%
6.2%
S3 Recession
1.5%
-1.1%
S3
6.3%
8.5%
12View entire presentation