Portfolio Valuation and Ameriabank Acquisition Update
(800)
US$ MLN
(400)
(009)
1Q17
(200)
600
400
200
-4
0
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
(90)(40)
(50)(53)(95)
(30)
(186)
Georgia Capital PLC | Source: NBG, Geostat, MOF
4
8
12
16
APPROPRIATE MACRO POLICY STANCE
INFLATION Y-O-Y VS. INFLATION TARGET
GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (% OF GDP)
Headline Inflation
Core Inflation
- Target
Monetary Policy Rate
--General Government Debt, External (% of GDP)
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
NET NBG INTERVENTIONS ON THE FX MARKET AND OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS
I Net Interventions (LHS)
Reserve Assets (RHS)
FISCAL DEFICIT*, % OF GDP
430
265
164
73
100121
93 94
20
4 26
3.0
(58)
(232)
2.0
(301)
(332)
(461)
1.0
10
(598)
0.0
00
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
US$ BLN
60%
9.0
50%
40%
1.4
0.0
30%
20%
0%
6.0
5.0
-2%
5.0
111
-4%
-2.8% -2.7%
4.0
-10%
-12%
2014
* IMF modified
-6%
-8%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2010
2011
2012
-3.0%
-2.7%
-2.3% -2.1%
2020
-9.3%
2021
2022
2023F
-6.1%
2013
2024F
2014
2025F
2015
2016
2017
-3.0%
-2.8%
2026F
2027F
74
2018
2019
2020
General Government Debt, Total (% of GDP)
60.2%
47.6%
41.8%
39.5%
37.1%
32.0%
29.6%
2021
2022
2023F
2024F
2025F
2026F
2027F
-2.5% -2.3% -2.2% -2.2%
23.4%
GEORGIA
CAPITALView entire presentation