Investor Presentaiton
brand name distributors to this massive potential market; iii)
it offers an opportunity of arbitrage in the higher volume and
higher seasonal market, São Paulo. In fact, thanks to the more
recent measures now in place, a trend to improvement can be
observed in this sector, since the distributors' ethanol margins
ceased to be negative (see the same chart above).
The potencial increase supply of 'private label' gas
stations could also represent a negotial advantage for the
established distributors, since this would probably lessen the
capital expenditure incurred on purchases (up front payments,
discounts, etc.), thereby increasing the return per liter sold.
The tax evasion fight and the trend towards a gain of
market share of the established brand names should result
in a significant reduction in the number of distributors in the
market. At the other side, the move to concentrating pro-
duction among the ethanol mills has been quite slower. As
a result, the distributors' bargaining power over the ethanol
producers will increase. It is no coincidence that Cosan,
Brazil's biggest sugar cane producer acquired Esso and also
now acts as a distributor. The move is a material signal for
ethanol producers that the other side of the table holds a
stronger competitive edge to make profits from the arbitrage
opportunities in this market.
With this pressure on illegality, the dynamic of the retail
fuel sector competition should finally fall on the underlying
features of this business, i.e., scale (distribution logistics), brand
(retail service), and management. Here, Ipiranga is unique.
Ipiranga is Brazil's second largest fuel distributor,
second only to BR Distribuidora, a wholly owned Petrobras
distributor. The greatest concentration of its gas stations is in
the South and Southeast regions of the country, where volumes
are greater. With the acquisition of Texaco, Ipiranga now has
approximately five thousand service stations, thereby increas-
ing its exposure in the Center West, North, and Northeast of
Brazil. The geographic range of its resale and the quality of
its logistic assets afford the company an unprecedented poten-
tial for obtaining scale gains in the purchase of new stations
(operating leverage), thus reinforcing its competitive edge in a
growth environment.
The Ipiranga brand name was built over many years
from a perspective to approach the business as a retail service
provider and not as a wholesale commodity producer. The
attention to brand management of the former Ipiranga control-
lers, allied to the Ultra Group's experience in acquisitions, has
produced very positive results. Operating margins improve
from quarter to quarter, a reflection of management's ability
to obtain scale gains in their business. Since the acquisition of
Ipiranga in 2T2007, the company's EBITDA per liter increased
by close to 40%. The recent acquisition of Texaco, whose gas
stations are being converted faster and at costs below those
projected, appears to assure additional gains thanks to the
wider range of the network, dilution of the SGA expenses, and
maximization of the logistics base.
In a context such as this, it is not difficult to perceive the
huge opportunity for Ipiranga if the measures that threaten tax
evasion succeed in forcing non branded service stations into
legality. It is as though the leading player of ethanol distribu-
tion is up for sale.
Drogasil
Retail medications represent another sector where
Brazil's complex tax system and tax evasion cause huge distor-
tions. In 2006, according to IMS Health, there were close to
55.6 thousand drugstores, a volume close to that of the USA
(58 thousand). However, while in the US, U$291 billion in
medications was sold in 2008, in Brazil, the corresponding
volume of sales was only U$17 billion. The fact that, here, we
have approximately the same number of pharmacies in a market
seventeen times smaller makes little sense to us. Furthermore,
in the US market, the major pharmaceutical retailers are re-
sponsible for almost 40% of the sector's total revenues, while
independent operators (those not associated with any retail
chain) hold 30% of the sales units. In Brazil, 93% of the total
volume of pharmacies is independent.
Over the last ten years, we assisted a trend to concentra-
tion of the retail pharmaceutical market in many countries. A
movement that makes a lot of economic sense. Let us explain.
Unlike other commercial activities, in the drugstore retail busi-
ness,
there are few major barriers to the entry of new competi-
Dynamo Cougar x IBX x Ibovespa
Performance up to March/2009 (in R$)
Period
Dynamo
Cougar
IBX
Ibovespa
average
average
60 months
141.13%
129.66%
-86.29%
36 months
18.09%
13.99%
8.71%
24 months
-6.07%
-6.55%
-9.69%
12 months
-23.04%
-30.41%
-32.10%
3 months
7.07%
10.68%
9.60%
NAV/Share on March 31 sd = R$ 145.209094096
5View entire presentation