Celebrating 10 Years at BM&FBOVESPA
Economic scenario and sector outlook
In 2015, the country's economic activity went
into recession, with the GDP 3.6% lower
in 2015 against a slight annual increase of
0.2% recorded at the end of 2014. The main
economic policy indicators came under
pressure and reached their worst levels in
recent years.
The high inflation, measured by the Broad
Consumer Price Index (IPCA) reached 10.7%,
the highest in the last 13 years and above the
ceiling of the Central Bank's target, which was
6.5%. The basic interest rate, consequently,
suffered a series of increases by the Central
Bank, closing the year at 14.25%, 2.5 p.p.
above the previous year.
Unemployment Rate
x Total Wages
DEC/12
JAN/13
FEB/13
MAR/13
During the period, the unemployment rate rose from 4.8% to 6.8%,
according to the Monthly Employment Survey in the six main
metropolitan regions of the country, conducted by the Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
APR/13
MAY/13
JUN/13
JUL/13
AUG/13
SEP/13
OCT/13
NOV/13
64.795
6.9%
DEC/13
JAN/14
FEB/14
MAR/14
APR/14
MAY/14
JUN/14
JUL/14
AUG/14
SEP/14
OCT/14
NOV/14
DEC/14
JAN/15
FEB/15
MAR/15
APR/15
MAY/15
JUN/15
JUL/15
AUG/15
SEP/15
OCT/15
NOV/15
DEC/15
Unemployment Rate
(% Of the Economically Active Population)
- Total Wages (R$ MM)
This deteriorating economic environment had a direct effect on the
decline of customer purchasing power, with the reduction of the
confidence index, increased indebtedness, reduced credit availability
and default rate growth.
Consumer Confidence Index
x Trade Confidence Index
JAN/13
FEB/13
MAR/13
APR/13
MAY/13
JUN/13
JUL/13
AUG/13
SEP/13
OCT/13
NOV/13
DEC/13
JAN/14
FEB/14
MAR/14
APR/14
MAY/14
JUN/14
JUL/14
AUG/14
SEP/14
OCT/14
NOV/14
DEC/14
JAN/15
FEB/15
MAR/15
APR/15
MAY/15
JUN/15
JUL/15
AUG/15
SEP/15
OCT/15
NOV/15
DEC/15
Consumer Confidence Index
Trade Confidence Index - Restricted Retail
75
61
DEC/05
Level of
Indebtedness
Household Debt / Accumulated Income (12 months)
Household Debt (ex. housing) / Accumulated Income (12 months)
Income Commitment to Debt Service (Amort. + Interest)
Total Savings (balances)
Source: IDV, Ministry of Finance, IBGE/PME, Brazilian
Central Bank (new methodology from March/11).
44.29%
25.58%
20.85%
introduction
Evolution of Credit
to Individuals
14.0%
13.8%
13.5%
13.4%
13.6%
13.9%
13.0%
11.5%
10,6%
7.2% 7.3% 8.2%
6.5%
8.1%
5.8%
7.2% 6.6%
8.1%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Credit to Individuals/GDP
(end of each period)
Trend
Individuals Default Rate
(Average of each period)
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