2021 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation
Forward looking information -
macro-economic scenarios
30 June 2021
Bank of Ireland 2021 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation
2021
Ireland
2022
2023-2025
2021
United Kingdom
2022
2023-2025
52
62
Central scenario - 45% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
4.7%
4.9%
3.0%
5.4%
5.5%
1.8%
GNP growth¹
Unemployment rate
6.1%
4.7%
2.6%
n/a
n/a
n/a
8.0%
7.4%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
4.6%
Residential property price growth
3.0%
2.0%
1.3%
4.0%
(1.0%)
1.7%
Commercial property price growth
(5.5%)
(0.5%)
1.5%
(4.0%)
0.0%
1.5%
Upside scenario -20% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
6.3%
5.9%
3.2%
7.5%
6.2%
1.9%
GNP growth¹
7.7%
5.7%
2.8%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
7.2%
5.8%
4.4%
5.0%
4.7%
3.8%
Residential property price growth³
5.0%
3.0%
1.7%
6.0%
3.0%
2.3%
Commercial property price growth³
(2.5%)
0.5%
2.5%
(1.5%)
1.0%
2.5%
Downside scenario 1 -25% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
3.0%
2.9%
4.4%
3.6%
1.6%
3.2%
GNP growth¹
2.8%
2.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
4.6%
Unemployment rate²
8.8%
9.1%
7.7%
6.2%
7.0%
6.1%
Residential property price growth³
0.0%
(2.0%)
(0.3%)
1.0%
(3.0%)
(0.3%)
Commercial property price growth³
(7.0%)
(3.0%)
1.0%
(6.5%)
(3.0%)
0.8%
Downside scenario 2-10% probability weighting
GDP growth¹
1.9%
0.8%
2.5%
2.8%
1.5%
1.2%
GNP growth¹
2.9%
0.6%
2.1%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
10.0%
11.0%
9.8%
7.3%
8.8%
8.2%
Residential property price growth³
(3.0%)
(5.0%)
(1.7%)
(4.0%)
(8.0%)
(3.3%)
Commercial property price growth³
(10.0%)
(8.5%)
(1.3%)
(8.5%)
(8.0%)
(2.2%)
1 Annual growth rate
2 Average yearly rate
3 Year-end figures
Bank of IrelandView entire presentation