Emirates NBD Banking Sector Update

Dubai Economic Update 4 3.2 3 ■ Highlights Dubai Statistics revised up its estimate of 2010 growth to 2.8% from 2.4% previously, although the 'upgrade' was largely due to technical factors. ENBD maintains Dubai's GDP growth forecast at 3% in 2011, with risks still to the downside in the context of global developments. Dubai has developed a competitive edge in trade & logistics, tourism and business services; these sectors are set to be engines of growth for the emirate going forward. However, Dubai is a small, open economy and therefore particularly vulnerable to the global economy. y-o-y Growth % LO 5 + -2 -3 2008 Dubai: GDP growth set to accelerate -2.4 2009 Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Emirates NBD Research Contribution by sector to GDP growth 3 2.8 2010 2011F 2012F 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% -0.1% -0.4% Dubai GDP by Sector - 2010 (%) 100% = AED 293.6 billion 4.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.1% Others 0.8% 8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Financial Trade & Services 0.0% 11% Repairing -0.1% Services -1.0% 30% Manufact uring 13% -2.0% -0.3% -1.7% -3.0% Transport Real & -4.0% Estate 14% Construct Comms 14% ion 10% 2008 Trade & Repairing Services Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, NBS Emirates NBD Manufacturing ■Government Services -2.4% -2.7% -3.5% 2009 Transport & Comms Financial Services ■Others -1.6% 2010 Real Estate ■Construction Total 6

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