Trading Results & Economic Outlook
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables that we used to estimate Expected Credit Losses
Base Case Scenario
Alternative Scenario -
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic Front Loaded
Next 12 months
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
US
Optimistic
As at
As at
October 31, 2020 October 31, 2019
As at
As at
October 31, 2020 October 31, 2019
As at
As at
As at
October 31, 2020 October 31, 2019 October 31, 2020
As at October 31,
2019
3.1
1.9
4.7
2.4
-2.0
1.3
-10.8
n/a
7.3
5.8
6.7
5.6
9.9
6.1
14.1
n/a
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
2.5
1.8
3.6
2.3
-0.5
1.4
-7.4
6.3
3.9
6.1
3.7
8.1
4.0
10.5
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
Next 12 months
48
54
52
56
42
Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables:
n/a
금금
n/a
53
37
n/a
Calendar Quarters
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
Q3
2021
2021
2021
Base Case Scenario
Average
October 31
2020
Calendar Quarters
Q4
Q1
2019
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Average¹
October 31
2019
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
-3.9
-0.4
12.9
3.7
3.1
1.8
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.9
Unemployment rate, average %
8.1
7.1
6.9
6.9
7.3
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
-3.7
-1.1
9.9
4.8
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.5
7.7
6.6
5.8
5.4
6.3
3.9
3.9
4.0
245
1.3
1.8
4.0
3.9
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
45
48
50
51
48
56
53
44
54
56
54
1 Average for October 31, 2019 computed over Q3/19 - Q2/20
Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of September 3, 2020
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