Investor Presentaiton
Japan Logistics Market Outlook
Significant new supply for 2023 and 2024 is major factor behind rising vacancy rate, loosening supply-demand balance.
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Due to the booming logistics and supply chain demand during COVID-
19, a large supply of new logistics facilities became available in the
Greater Tokyo market in 2022 and completion will continue in 2023.
Demand on the other hand is outpaced by the influx and absorption of
the new supply. Vacancy rates remains as a continuing concern(1).
New Large Multi-Tenant (LMT) logistics facility supply for Greater Tokyo
rose by an unprecedented 324,000 tsubo in 1Q2023, above the record
260,000 Tsubo. The increased supply has led to a 2.5% vacancy rate in
Greater Tokyo, the first time surpassing 2% since 1Q2019.
Although robust demand for logistics facilities is displayed by logistics
operators and e-commerce businesses, the new supply still outstrips net
absorption and exert impact on vacancy rate of existing properties.
Tenants now enjoy an abundance of options in the new market and yet
are cautious with expansion in the midst of economic uncertainty.
Logistics operators are facing higher operating costs due to labour
shortages and high energy prices. This has resulted in landlords having
challenges in increasing rents since tenants are operating on thin
margins.
Forecasted rents are expected to be flattish moving into 2023 and 2024
for most of Greater Tokyo, apart from Tokyo Bay Area due to lack of
supply and its location being closest to Tokyo City.
450,000 tsubo
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
Supply/ Demand Balance and Vacancy Rate for Greater Tokyo (2)
10%
▶Forecast
9%
8%
7%
6%
New Supply
Vacancy Rate (Overall).
5%
4%
Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate (More than one year old)
3%
2%
1%
0%
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023
Effective Rent Index for Greater Tokyo, by Area (2)
Vacancy Rate
Effective Rent Index (JPY/tsubo/month)
Q1 2022
Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
Q-o-Q
Overall
4.7%
4.4%
5.2%
5.6%
8.2%
4,520
4,520
4,550
4,540
4,540
±0.0%
Greater Tokyo
More than
one year old
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
2.5%
Overall
13.2%
13.0%
10.7%
5.3%
4.7%
7,530
7,540
7,560
7,580
7,600
+0.3%
Tokyo Bay Area
More than
one year old
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.7%
Overall
0.9%
1.9%
4.3%
1.3%
0.5%
5,190
5,190
5,170
5,170
5,190
+0.4%
Greater
Tokyo
Gaikando Area
More than
one year old
0.0%
0.4%
1.4%
1.0%
0.0%
Overall
5.4%
4.8%
5.8%
6.1%
10.1%
4,510
4,510
4,520
4,530
4,530
±0.0%
Route 16 Area
More than
one year old
0.7%
1.5%
1.9%
0.8%
2.7%
Overall
4.3%
4.0%
3.9%
7.7%
10.7%
3.620
3,620
3,620
3,620
3,620
±0.0%
Ken-O-do Area
More than
one year old
1.7%
1.5%
1.7%
1.7%
3.4%
Notes: (1) Savills Japan Logistics Japan March 2023 (2) Based on CBRE Japan Logistics MarketView Q1 2023
ESR-LOGOS
REIT
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