Investor Presentaiton
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
2014
2015
Source: MoF
0%
20%
30%
2010
40%
50%
60%
Public debt
Sources: MoF
Overall Balance (IMF Modified), % of GDP
-2%
-4%
-2.7%
-2.8%
-3.0%
-2.7%
-2.3%
-2.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-9.3%
2021F
2022F
-6.7%
2023F
External public debt to GDP, %
Total public debt to GDP, %
59.9%
52.2%
48.5%
47.5%
42.2%
34.8%
2024F
2017
DEBT AND FISCAL DEFICIT ON COURSE FOR CONSOLIDATION
2018
2019
2020
2021F
-3.0%
-2.7%
-2.5%
-4.4%
2025F
2022F
2023F
2024F
2025F
FISCAL SUPPORT TO MODERATE
Fiscal expenditures grew by 5% y/y in real terms in 9M21 (14% in
nominal), including a 20% growth (30% in nominal) in 2Q21,
contributing the most to the surge in consumption and,
subsequently, GDP;
Fiscal support has begun moderating since the 2nd half of 2021, as
the fiscal deficit (overall balance) fell by 11.4% y/y in 9M21
(compared to a 57% increase y/y in 1H21);
-
The 2022 budget draft law lays out a consolidation path to return
to the fiscal rule bounds ā public debt is projected to fall to 52.2%
of GDP by the end of the year, while the overall fiscal deficit (IMF
program definition) will return to the 3% ceiling by 2023;
ā¤ The operating deficit is set to switch to surplus again from 2021,
i.e. revenues are expected to be greater than current expenditures;
Current expenditures are planned to fall to 22% of GDP in 2022, a
significant cut compared to 26.2% of GDP in 2020 and close to the
pre-crisis level of 21.4% in 2019;
Capital expenditures are set to remain high and reach 8.2% of GDP
in 2022.
8
GEORGIA
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