Investor Presentaiton
•
Canadian Housing Fundamentals Remain Sound
Steady population growth (including a high rate of
immigration), household income gains and low interest rates
support demand in the near future
High household debt supported by continuing low debt service
costs, low unemployment and significant home equity
Structural considerations, strong underwriting discipline and
conservative lending policies resulting in low delinquency
Unemployment rate remains low and stable
Marginal affordability strain observed in select markets
Residential Unit Sales to New Listings
1.0
ratio
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
MM
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Balanced
Market
Seller's Market
Buyer's Market
Mortgage Debt Service Ratio
7
% of disposable income
6
LO
5
4
3
2
1
0
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: CREA MLS, Scotiabank Economics. Data through January 2016.
High Percentage of Equity
Residential Mortgages Arrears
80
6
real estate equity as % of
real estate assets
Canada
75
% of mortgages in arrears
3 months or more
5
70
Mortgage Interest Payments
65
60
4
U.S.
3
U.S.
55
2
50
45
1
Canada
40
0
35
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Data through 2015Q3.
Source: Statistics Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, Scotiabank Economics.
Data through 2015Q3.
15
Source: CBA, MBA, Scotiabank Economics. Data through 2015 Q4.
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