Morgan Stanley Investment Banking Pitch Book
Morgan Stanley
2 Preliminary Valuation Summary (1)(2)
Public Trading Comparables
Revenue (CY23E)
Street Case: 6.0x-9.0x AV/ CY23E Revenue of $415MM
Management Case: 6.0x-9.0x AV/CY23E Revenue of $440MM
Free Cash Flow (CY23E)
Street Case: 30.0x-45.0x P/ CY23E FCF of $104MM
Management Case: 30.0x - 45.0x P/ CY23E FCF of $107MM
Discounted Equity Value
Based on Revenue (CY25E) and discounted 2.3 Years at 12.3% cost of equity
Street Case: 6.0x-9.0x AV/CY25E Revenue of $585MM
Management Case: 6.0x-9.0x AV / CY25E Revenue of $697MM
Based on Free Cash Flow (CY25E) and discounted 2.3 Years at 12.3% cost of equity
Street Case: 30.0x - 40.0x P/CY25E FCF of $136MM
Management Case: 30.0x-40.0x P/ CY25E FCF of $208MM
(4)
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Management Case: 11.3% -13.3% WACC; 3.0% -4.0% PGR
Precedent Transaction Multiples
Revenue (NTM CY22E)
Street Case: 7.0x-11.0x AV/ NTM Revenue of $374MM
Management Case: 7.0x-11.0x AV / NTM Revenue of $388MM
For Reference
Precedent Transaction Premia
20.0% - 50.0% Premium to Unaffected Spot ($19.41)
20.0% - 50.0% Premium to 30-Day Average ($19.37)
Historical Trading Range
Last 30 Days
Last 90 Days
Last 365 Days
(6)
Analyst Price Targets
Undiscounted
Discounted 1 Year @ 12.3% Cost of Equity
(5)
$0
&
$10
Notes
1. Market data and Thomson estimates as of 9/12/2022, Street financials represent consensus estimates through CY2024E
2. Management reflects forecast provided by Management on 8/12/2022
3. Relevant public comparables include: Atlassian, DocuSign, Smartsheet, Jam, Zoominfo, Asana, Sprout Social, PagerDuty.
Hubspot, Okta, Qualys, Rapid7, Tenable, Crowdstrike, Zscaler
PROJECT ORANGE
Share Price as of 9/12/2022: $19.41
$15.19
$16.00
$16.85
$17.42
$14.29
$14.29
$16.53
$16.53
$15.88
$16.39
$17.59
$17.37
$19.32
$16.92
$15
$19.00
$20
PRELIMINARY AND CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
$21.86
$23.08
$22.01
$23.29
$23.25
$20.80
$20.80
$23.59
$25.09
$25.21
$26.06
$23.93
$23.91
$24.71
$25
$24.00
$24.94
$27.69
$29.12
$29.06
$27.40
$28.00
$30
$33.42
$35
4. Valuation date for DEV and DCF as of 9/12/2022
5. Cost of equity of 12.3% based on 1.49 Barra predicted beta, 3.4 % risk-free rate and 6.0% market risk premium
6. Historical trading range based on daily last sale prices
Median
7
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