Investor Presentaiton
2021 INVESTOR DAY
Coal volume scenarios
Aurizon's second two scenarios test different Australian supply constraints
3
Port Constrained
Australia
2020
2030
2040
Port capacity constrained in Central Queensland
No Australian mine constraints
Equivalent GDP and demand trajectory as Current Economics
4 Mine/Regulatory
Constrained Australia
2020
2030
AURIZON.
New coal mines limited to probable near-term opportunities with no new
greenfield capacity from 2025
Existing mine production extended where possible, no port constraint
Equivalent GDP and demand trajectory as Current Economics
Key assumptions
2020
2040f
Key assumptions
2020
2040f
Australian coal terminal expansions
Central Queensland coal terminal utilisation
70%1
No expansion
7
-85%
Australian new coal developments
Australian share of seaborne market
~30 mtpa capacity
30%2
-25%
Australian share of seaborne market
30%2
7
-35%
1. Port/Terminal reporting (based on port/terminal nameplate capacity of 292mtpa); 2. International Energy Agency, Coal 2020 (2019 data)
2040
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