Investor Presentaiton
2021 INVESTOR DAY
Coal volume scenarios¹ (continued)
The six scenarios are based on potential outcomes to drive divergent thinking, enabling the
stress-testing of the business
AURIZON.
Commodity Strong
Higher seaborne coal
demand from Asia &
accelerated GDP growth
No new climate change
policies implemented
No Australian mine/port
constraints
Current Economics
BOF-BF2 share of crude
steel production retained as
dominant method of steel
production in Asia
Coal-fired power plants
maintain typical economic
life and new capacity limited
to South East Asia and those
under construction (globally)
No Australian mine/port
constraints
Port Constrained Australia
Port capacity constrained in
Central Queensland
No Australian mine
constraints
Equivalent GDP and demand
trajectory as Current
Economics
Mine/Reg. Constrained Aust.
New coal mines limited to
probable near-term
opportunities with no new
greenfield capacity from
2025
Existing mine production
extended where possible, no
port constraint
Equivalent GDP and demand
trajectory as Current
Economics
Carbon Constrained Asia
Lower GDP growth. China
self sufficient in thermal coal
from 2032
Earlier coal-fired power plant
closure due to policy and
renewables
Rapid Decarbonisation
Staggered retirement of
global coal-fired electricity
capacity, targeting oldest to
newest plants. Complete
closure by 2032
-20% share of global steel
making is hydrogen-based
DRI/EAF³ by 2040
BF-BOF2 share of global
steel production reduces to
-40%
Australia: Coal Export Volume
Australia: Coal Export Volume
Australia: Coal Export Volume
Australia: Coal Export Volume
Australia: Coal Export Volume
Australia: Coal Export Volume
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
2020
2030
2040
1. As noted on slide 2 these are scenarios (and associated cash flow modelling) not predictions or forecasts and do not constitute definitive outcomes for Aurizon. It is difficult to predict which, if any, of these scenarios might eventuate. Further details of the scenarios,
assumptions and levers to model free cash flow are described in detail on slides 22-33. Additional scenario commentary provided in the appendix.
2. Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace
3. Direct Reduction Iron/Electric Arc Furnace
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