Scotiabank Investor Presentation
CA: Growth in Household Credit
•
Total household credit growth, in annual nominal terms, had slowed considerably since the 2007 peak of
13.4% y/y. Household credit growth has picked up rapidly throughout 2021 and into 2022, but is now
showing early signs of peaking, with recent figures at 8.5% y/y for the rolling quarter ending Aug. 2022.
Consumer loans excluding mortgages (i.e., cards, HELOCs, unsecured lines, auto loans, etc.)
grew by 5.0% y/y for the rolling quarter ending Aug. 2022. Consumer loan growth has trended downward
since late-2000 highs of over 16.6% y/y and declined further during the pandemic on refinancing into
secured credit, but recent quarters are still showing signs of strong consumer demand and spending
strength.
• Mortgage credit grew at 9.3% y/y in the rolling quarter ending Aug. 2022 vs the 2007 peak of 14.1% y/y.
Signs of slowing mortgage growth are showing amidst higher rates.
Household Credit Growth
20
%, 3-month moving average
y/y %
15
change
Consumer Loan Growth
Residential Mortgage Growth
%, 3-month moving average
20
25
%, 3-month moving average
20
y/y%
change
15
y/y % change
15
10
5
10
10
0
-5
5
m/m%
change,
SA
-10
m/m%
change, SA
5
m/m%
change,
SA
-15
0
-20
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics
Canada.
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics
Canada.
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics
Canada.
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