Investor Presentaiton
Future rainfall projections at a subnational level
Future climate scenarios based on historical climate data for the Dominican Republic provided by the
National Meteorological Office (ONAMET) and analysed by experts from the Water Center for the Humid
Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC), concluded:
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• The conditions of total annual precipitation by 2050 may decrease by 15% on average throughout the
national territory, aggravating the decrease to values of 17% by 2070, compared to the average of the
baseline 1950-2000.
b
⚫ The southern and western regions of the country will be the most affected by the decrease in rainfall by
2050 and 2070, while the eastern and northern regions could even show even small positive changes.
The total monthly precipitation during the dry season may decrease drastically by 2050 and 2070.
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The beginning of the rainy season in May and June could present a sudden increase in the total
accumulated rainfall.d
The period of relative droughts between the months of July-August could be more intense.
NOTES
a The consistency between the models under a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² on the conditions of decrease in annual rainfall totals is 87%.
The condition of decrease in total annual precipitation could be further accentuated by 2050/2070 in the regions of Ozama (18% / 20%), Valdesia
(17.5% / 20%), Enriquillo (17% / 20%), Higuamo (16% / 18%) and Cibao Sur (15% / 17%). The other regions may experience changes of less than 15%.
Only one model shows positive values by 2050 in Cibao Noroeste (1.3%), Cibao Norte (0.9%) and Yuma (0.1%) where it would only increase in Yuma
(4.5%) by 2070.
On a timely basis and under any type of radiative forcing the models mostly coincide in a decrease in the total rainfall of up to 50% (Jimaní, La Unión,
San Juan, Santiago and Santo Domingo) and decreases of between 10% and 30% (Arroyo Barril, Las Américas, Herrera, Punta Cana, Barahona and
S. De la Mar) between the months of December and January-April period with respect to those presented in average in the past 3 decades.
There is a coincidence in the results of the models presenting increases of more than 100% (mainly in Herrera, Barahona and San Juan), while in the
majority of cases there is also a great variability in the results. The case of Barahona stands out, where there is a great coincidence in the results on
a decrease of around -120% compared to those presented on average in the past 3 decades.
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