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Investor Presentaiton

Macroeconomic Scenarios Select Macroeconomic Variables used to estimate Expected Credit Losses Next 12 months Canada Base Case Scenario As at As at Alternative Scenario - Alternative Scenario - Optimistic Pessimistic Alternative Scenario - Pessimistic Front Loaded As at As at As at As at As at As at January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change 4.6 3.1 6.5 Unemployment rate, average % 7.9 7.3 7.4 ཐབ 4.7 -0.6 -2.0 -6.8 -10.8 6.7 10.1 9.9 13.0 14.1 US Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change 4.3 2.5 5.7 3.6 0.9 -0.5 -2.9 -7.4 Unemployment rate, average % 6.2 6.3 5.8 6.1 7.4 8.1 8.7 10.5 Global WTI oil price, average USD/bbl 48 48 54 52 41 42 38 37 Next 12 months Canada Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables: Base Case Scenario Calendar Quarters Calendar Quarters Q1 2021 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average January 31 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2021 2021 2021 2021 2020 2021 2021 2021 Average October 31 2020 Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change -2.2 11.8 4.2 4.6 4.6 -3.9 -0.4 12.9 3.7 3.1 Unemployment rate, average % 8.4 8.2 7.7 7.3 7.9 8.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.3 US Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change Unemployment rate, average % -1.2 10.1 3.8 4.3 4.3 -3.7 6.1 19 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.2 37 -1.1 9.9 7.7 6.6 5.8 449 4.8 2.5 5.4 6.3 Global WTI oil price, average USD/bbl 44 47 47 49 62 999 52 48 45 45 48 50 51 48 24 Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of December 21, 2020
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